Archived Week 4 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET · FOX · US Bank Stadium, Minnesota
Indoor Final
Miami Dolphins
0-3 · 0-4 last season
Final10
At
MIN -9.5 Total 38.5 MIA covered · Under
Minnesota Vikings
3-0 · 4-0 last season
Final15
Line movement open Sep 29
MIN spread
-10.5 -9.5
1.0
Total
38.5 38.5
no move
The angle, before kickoff
Lean · 4/10
Minnesota -10.5 with a 24.5 implied total hosts Miami's 31st-ranked offense indoors.
SideBET HOME -10.5MIA offense #31 faces MIN defense #2 allowing 13.7 ppg.
TotalPASSprojected 38.5 sits exactly on the line.
Best bet
Aaron Jones over 68.5 rushing yards against Miami's 30th-ranked run defense in a run-heavy script.
Quick hits
- MIN -10.5, total 38.5, implied MIA 14.0 / MIN 24.5.
- Low-scoring: MIA offense #31 at 12.0 ppg meets MIN defense #2 at 13.7 allowed.
- MIN run game vs MIA run defense #30 is the decisive edge.
- MIN leads throughout, run-heavy at 46% pass; MIA chases with a tough passing matchup.
- Jefferson OUT reshapes MIN's passing tree and caps the ceiling.
Key matchups
- Aaron Jones vs MIA RB defense #30 (27.4 fpa): smash, feature-back script.
- Kyler Murray vs MIA QB defense #27 (19.8 fpa): smash, elite rushing floor.
- T.J. Hockenson vs MIA TE defense #26 (16.3 fpa): smash, Jefferson-out target boost.
- Malik Willis vs MIN QB defense #1 (12.8 fpa): tough, worst spot on the board.
- Ollie Gordon vs MIN RB defense #2 (17.1 fpa): tough, 24.5-yard prop ceiling.
- Greg Dulcich vs MIN TE defense #3 (9.4 fpa): tough, avoid.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA |
Malik Willis | QB | 13.1 | $4,900 | MIN #1 of 32 | 11.6 | Tough |
| MIA |
Malik Washington | WR | 10.4 | $4,400 | MIN #5 of 32 | 27.1 | Tough |
| MIA |
Greg Dulcich | TE | 7.7 | $3,200 | MIN #2 of 32 | 8.6 | Tough |
| MIA |
Ollie Gordon II | RB | 7.1 | $5,500 | MIN #2 of 32 | 17.7 | Tough |
| MIN |
Kyler Murray | QB | 17.0 | $5,300 | MIA #26 of 32 | 18.7 | Smash |
| MIN |
Aaron Jones Sr. | RB | 15.4 | $6,000 | MIA #30 of 32 | 26.5 | Smash |
| MIN |
Jordan Addison | WR | 14.0 | $5,300 | MIA #4 of 32 | 26.9 | Tough |
| MIN |
T.J. Hockenson | TE | 11.9 | $3,300 | MIA #29 of 32 | 17.9 | Smash |
MIA skill positions vs MIN defenseQB
#1/32
11.6 fpa
RB
#2/32
17.7 fpa
WR
#5/32
27.1 fpa
TE
#2/32
8.6 fpa
MIN skill positions vs MIA defenseQB
#26/32
18.7 fpa
RB
#30/32
26.5 fpa
WR
#4/32
26.9 fpa
TE
#29/32
17.9 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- MIN runs slow at 56 plays (#29) and passes just 46%, Miami 58 plays (#25).
- MIN leads early and leans run; MIA must pass into the #1 QB defense.
- Points come from MIN's 24.5 implied total via Jones and Murray on the ground.
Projected points (market implied)
MIA14.5
MIN24.0
Offense profile
MIARank of 32MIN
11.5
#32
Pts / G
21.5
#17
178.5
#30
Pass yds / G
178.2
#31
104.0
#19
Rush yds / G
106.8
#16
52.5
#32
Plays / G
59.8
#20
52%
Pass rate
49%
0.2
Pass TD / G
1.0
0.8
Rush TD / G
0.5
2.8
Sacks taken / G
3.2
0.5
INT thrown / G
0.5
Defense profile
MIARank of 32MIN
25.2
#21
Pts allowed / G
12.8
#1
236.0
#19
Pass yds allowed
220.2
#10
109.0
#15
Rush yds allowed
94.5
#7
1.0
Sacks / G
4.0
0.8
INT / G
1.0
1.8
Pass TD allowed
0.8
1.0
Rush TD allowed
0.2
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 4 games per team.
Weather
Indoor: no weather factor. US Bank Stadium is a covered venue.
- Indoor: no weather factor.
DFS
- Stack Kyler Murray with Aaron Jones, both smash spots vs MIA #27 and #30.
- Value: T.J. Hockenson $3300 at 2.98x, Jefferson out lifts his targets.
- Fade: Ollie Gordon $5500 at 1.34x into MIN RB defense #2.
- Contrarian: Jordan Addison $5300 as the clear WR1 with Jefferson out.
MIA projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Malik Willis | 13.1 | 7.8 / 19.8 | $4,900 | 2.67x | $6,600 | #1 |
| WR | Malik Washington | 10.4 | 4.9 / 17.7 | $4,400 | 2.38x | $5,600 | #5 |
| TE | Greg Dulcich | 7.7 | 3.2 / 13.7 | $3,200 | 2.39x | $4,800 | #2 |
| RB | Ollie Gordon II | 7.1 | 3.4 / 13.5 | $5,500 | 1.29x | $5,900 | #2 |
| WR | Chris Bell | 6.9 | 2.3 / 13.2 | $3,700 | 1.86x | $4,900 | #5 |
| RB | Jaylen Wright | 6.8 | 3.2 / 12.6 | $5,000 | 1.35x | $5,900 | #2 |
| WR | Kevin Coleman Jr. | 4.2 | 0.1 / 9.5 | $3,000 | 1.39x | $4,400 | #5 |
MIN projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Kyler Murray | 17.0 | 10.6 / 24.9 | $5,300 | 3.22x | $7,200 | #26 |
| RB | Aaron Jones Sr. | 15.4 | 9.1 / 23.5 | $6,000 | 2.56x | $6,400 | #30 |
| WR | Jordan Addison | 14.0 | 6.5 / 25.1 | $5,300 | 2.65x | $6,500 | #4 |
| TE | T.J. Hockenson | 11.9 | 5.6 / 20.3 | $3,300 | 3.60x | $4,900 | #29 |
| WR | Jauan Jennings | 6.9 | 1.9 / 13.7 | $3,800 | 1.81x | $5,400 | #4 |
| WR | Tai Felton | 3.5 | 0.0 / 9.7 | $3,000 | 1.18x | $4,300 | #4 |
| RB | Demond Claiborne | 3.1 | 0.8 / 7.8 | $4,000 | 0.77x | $4,900 | #30 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Aaron Jones - rushing yards 68.5 - lean over - MIA RB defense #30 (27.4 fpa).
- Kyler Murray - rushing yards 21.5 - lean over - mobile QB vs #27 defense.
- T.J. Hockenson - receptions 4.5 (+115) - lean over - Jefferson-out volume vs #26 TE.
- Malik Willis - passing yards 172.5 - lean under - MIN QB defense #1 (12.8 fpa).
Injuries
MIA 8 listed- Out Caleb Douglas WR Ankle Severe
- IR Cole Turner TE Undisclosed Severe
- IR Devon Achane RB Knee Severe
- Out Rene Konga DT Unknown Minimal
- Out Robert Beal Jr. DE Hamstring Minimal
- IR Darrell Baker Jr. CB Undisclosed Minimal
- IR Kenneth Grant DT Leg Minimal
- IR Kyle Louis LB Knee Minimal
MIN 8 listed- IR Ben Yurosek TE Unknown Severe
- IR Jordan Mason RB Unknown Severe
- IR Josh Oliver TE Biceps Severe
- Out Brett Thorson P Hamstring Minimal
- Out Charles Demmings CB Hamstring Minimal
- Out Jamal Adams LB Unknown Minimal
- IR Michael Jurgens G Undisclosed Minimal
- IR Nick Samac C Knee Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- MIN 3-0, MIA 0-3 with four straight losses entering this one.
- H2H: MIN beat MIA 24-16 in the 2022 meeting.
- Line static: spread MIN -10.5 and total 38.5 unmoved since open.
MIA last 5L 10-15 @ MINL 10-24 vs KCL 13-35 @ SFL 13-27 @ LVL 10-38 @ NE
MIN last 5W 15-10 vs MIAW 23-16 @ TBW 9-3 @ CHIW 39-22 vs GBW 16-3 vs GB
Head-to-head
- Oct 4, 2026 MIA 10 at MIN 15
- Oct 16, 2022 MIN 24 at MIA 16
Watch list
- Jefferson officially OUT - confirms Addison and Hockenson target bumps.
- Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas questionable - MIA receiver depth already thin, Douglas out.
- Blake Cashman questionable - MIN linebacker could soften run defense if inactive.
Week 4 slate
Swipe for all 16 games this week.
PIT @ CLE
Thu 8:15 PM ET
PIT -6.5
O/U 37.5
Final
IND @ WAS
Sun 9:30 AM ET
IND -10.5
O/U 45.5
Final
ARI @ NYG
Sun 1:00 PM ET
ARI -2.5
O/U 44.5
Final
DAL @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -3
O/U 48.5
Final
GB @ TB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
GB -2.5
O/U 38.5
Final
JAX @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -2.5
O/U 51.5
Final
LA @ PHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 42.5
Final
NE @ BUF
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -6.5
O/U 49.5
Final
NYJ @ CHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
TEN @ BAL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -11.5
O/U 42.5
Final
MIA @ MIN
Sun 4:05 PM ET
MIN -9.5
O/U 38.5
Final
DEN @ SF
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SF -2.5
O/U 47.5
Final
KC @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
KC -4.5
O/U 47.5
Final
LAC @ SEA
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -7
O/U 43.5
Final
DET @ CAR
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DET -3.5
O/U 51.5
Final
ATL @ NO
Mon 8:15 PM ET
NO -1.5
O/U 47.5
Kicked off