Archived Week 1 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · CBS · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood Indoor Final

Arizona Cardinals

0-0 · 3-14 last season

Final26

At LAC -9.5 Total 47.5 ARI covered · Under

Los Angeles Chargers

0-0 · 10-8 last season

Final14

Line movement open Sep 6 LAC spread -9.5 -9.5 no move Total 47.5 47.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 3/10

Omarion Hampton is a smash into Arizona's 31st-ranked run defense allowing 28.4 fpa.

SidePASSprojected margin of 9.5 equals the spread exactly, no edge.

TotalPASSprojected total 47.5 matches the line to the point.

Best bet

Omarion Hampton over 68.5 rushing yards against Arizona's 31st-ranked run defense allowing 28.4 fpa.

Quick hits

LAC -9.5, total 47.5, implied ARI 19.0 and LAC 28.5.
Balanced-to-moderate scoring, LAC 28.5 implied against Arizona's 30th-ranked defense.
Hampton vs ARI #31 run defense is the game's decisive edge.
LAC leads and leans run, ARI trails and passes at a 65% clip.
Love questionable with an ankle thins an already banged-up backfield.

Key matchups

Omarion Hampton vs ARI #31 RB defense: 28.4 fpa, smash, run-game feast.
Justin Herbert vs ARI #23 QB defense: 18.9 fpa, favorable, 23.5 projected.
Oronde Gadsden II vs ARI #31 TE defense: 17.8 fpa, smash but only 5.4 projected.
Trey McBride vs LAC #5 TE defense: 10.6 fpa, tough, capped ceiling.
Jeremiyah Love vs LAC #3 RB defense: 18.4 fpa, tough, and questionable.
Marvin Harrison Jr. vs LAC #10 WR defense: 27.9 fpa, neutral, 10.8 projected.

ARI skill positions vs LAC defense

#2/32

14.1 fpa

Avoid

#7/32

19.1 fpa

Avoid

#4/32

28.4 fpa

Avoid

#17/32

13.4 fpa

Average

LAC skill positions vs ARI defense

#21/32

18.0 fpa

Good

#23/32

24.8 fpa

Good

#11/32

29.9 fpa

Bad

#29/32

17.5 fpa

Elite

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

LAC runs 64 plays at just 55% pass, ARI 63 plays at 65% pass.
Chargers script leads and grinds, Cardinals chase through the air trailing.
Points skew LAC, 28.5 implied off Herbert efficiency and Hampton red-zone work.

Projected points (market implied)

ARI19.0

LAC28.5

Offense profile

ARIRank of 32LAC

21.2 #21 Pts / G 19.9 #27

263.4 #4 Pass yds / G 222.6 #19

91.4 #31 Rush yds / G 119.2 #14

63.8 #7 Plays / G 63.5 #9

64% Pass rate 55%

1.6 Pass TD / G 1.3

0.6 Rush TD / G 0.6

3.2 Sacks taken / G 3.7

0.6 INT thrown / G 0.8

Defense profile

ARIRank of 32LAC

28.8 #30 Pts allowed / G 20.1 #8

242.8 #22 Pass yds allowed 200.3 #7

125.4 #23 Rush yds allowed 108.6 #9

1.9 Sacks / G 2.7

0.6 INT / G 1.1

1.9 Pass TD allowed 0.9

1.1 Rush TD allowed 0.9

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-14, 21 games per team.

Weather

Indoor: no weather factor. SoFi Stadium is a covered venue.

Indoor: no weather factor.

DFS

Stack Herbert with Hampton, both smash spots against Arizona's soft front.
Quentin Johnston at $4700 (2.15x) is the value flier in a high LAC total.
Fade McBride at $6800 into LAC's #5 TE defense allowing 10.6 fpa.
Contrarian: Michael Wilson at $5300 in a 65% pass, chase-script Cardinals offense.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Omarion Hampton - rushing yards 68.5 - over - vs ARI #31 run defense, 28.4 fpa.
Justin Herbert - passing yards 240.5 - over - #23 matchup, 23.5 projection.
Trey McBride - receiving yards 55.5 - under - LAC #5 TE defense, tough spot.
Ladd McConkey - receptions 4.5 - over - 14.1 projected, team-leading target share.

All ARI and LAC props with AI grades

Injuries

ARI 8 listed

Out Carson Beck QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Jameson Geers TE Unknown Severe
Out Reggie Virgil WR Unknown Severe
Out Trey Benson RB Knee Severe
Out Andrew Billings DT Unknown Minimal
Out Chase Bisontis G Unknown Minimal
Out Dadrion Taylor-Demerson FS Unknown Minimal
Out Garrett Williams CB Unknown Minimal

LAC 8 listed

Out Alex Harkey G Unknown Minimal
Out Deane Leonard CB Unknown Minimal
Out Isaiah World OT Unknown Minimal
Out Logan Taylor G Unknown Minimal
Out R.J. Mickens FS Unknown Minimal
Out Trevor Penning OT Unknown Minimal
Quest. KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR Hamstring Minimal
Quest. Ladd McConkey WR Chest Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

LAC lost 4 of last 5, ARI lost all 5 including 20-37 to LA.
Last two H2H decided by two points, 17-15 and 25-24.
Line static at LAC -9.5, total flat at 47.5, no market move.

ARI last 5

W 26-14 @ LACL 20-37 @ LAL 14-37 @ CINL 19-26 vs ATLL 20-40 @ HOU

LAC last 5

L 14-26 vs ARIL 3-16 @ NEL 3-19 @ DENL 16-20 vs HOUW 34-17 @ DAL

Head-to-head

Sep 13, 2026 ARI 26 at LAC 14
Oct 21, 2024 LAC 15 at ARI 17
Nov 27, 2022 LAC 25 at ARI 24

Watch list

Jeremiyah Love ankle - questionable RB1 shifts Arizona backfield touches to Allgeier.
Keaton Mitchell hamstring - questionable, could cede more LAC work to Hampton.
Garrett Williams achilles - questionable CB affects Arizona's coverage of McConkey.
Line at LAC -9.5 - watch for late move signaling sharp side.

Week 1 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

NE @ SEA