Archived Week 1 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · CBS · US Bank Stadium, Minnesota Division Indoor Final

Green Bay Packers

0-0 · 7-9 last season

Final22

At MIN -1.5 Total 46.5 MIN covered · Over

Minnesota Vikings

0-0 · 9-8 last season

Final39

Line movement open Sep 6 MIN spread -1.5 -1.5 no move Total 46.5 46.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 3/10

MIN -1.5 with the NFL's #1 pass defense hosting a Packers offense that scored 3 last meeting.

SideBET HOME -1.5MIN's #6 scoring defense and 5-game win streak host a reeling GB.

TotalBET UNDER 46.5MIN #1 pass defense plus GB scoring 3 last meeting.

Best bet

Justin Jefferson over 74.5 receiving yards is the slate's clearest matchup edge at #20 vs WR.

Quick hits

MIN -1.5, total 46.5, implied GB 22.5 and MIN 24.0, no line move.
Low-scoring lean: MIN allows 19.3 ppg (#6) and GB just lost 5 straight.
Decisive spot: GB skill players all face top-3 MIN position defenses.
Script: MIN leads narrow, both offenses inefficient, run-tilted grind.
Swing factor: Josh Jacobs (RB1) Out reshapes the GB backfield.

Key matchups

Justin Jefferson vs GB: 32.1 fpa, #20 WR defense, FAVORABLE, only clean edge.
Jordan Love vs MIN: 10.4 fpa, #1 QB defense, TOUGH, avoid.
Christian Watson vs MIN: 23.3 fpa, #1 WR defense, TOUGH ceiling capped.
Tucker Kraft vs MIN: 9.4 fpa, #3 TE defense, TOUGH, fade the TE.
Kyler Murray vs GB: 16.0 fpa, #13 QB defense, NEUTRAL.
Aaron Jones vs GB: 22.8 fpa, #19 RB defense, NEUTRAL split with Mason.

GB skill positions vs MIN defense

#1/32

13.3 fpa

Avoid

#3/32

17.5 fpa

Avoid

#18/32

30.2 fpa

Average

#6/32

10.9 fpa

Avoid

MIN skill positions vs GB defense

#13/32

16.8 fpa

Bad

#15/32

22.8 fpa

Average

#22/32

31.9 fpa

Good

#13/32

12.6 fpa

Bad

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

MIN runs just 57 plays (#30) and GB 61 (#19), slow pace both ways.
Favorite MIN grinds a lead behind Murray, GB forced to pass into #1 secondary.
Points scarce: implied totals 22.5 and 24.0, MIN scores 19.8 ppg (#26).

Projected points (market implied)

GB22.5

MIN24.0

Offense profile

GBRank of 32MIN

22.7 #16 Pts / G 20.9 #23

239.8 #10 Pass yds / G 189.1 #29

117.0 #15 Rush yds / G 107.5 #24

61.0 #18 Plays / G 56.8 #30

52% Pass rate 54%

1.6 Pass TD / G 1.1

0.9 Rush TD / G 0.9

1.9 Sacks taken / G 3.5

0.5 INT thrown / G 1.2

Defense profile

GBRank of 32MIN

23.5 #18 Pts allowed / G 19.5 #7

212.1 #11 Pass yds allowed 188.2 #2

123.8 #22 Rush yds allowed 121.0 #17

1.9 Sacks / G 3.0

0.5 INT / G 0.5

1.5 Pass TD allowed 0.9

1.1 Rush TD allowed 0.7

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-14, 21 games per team.

Weather

Indoor: no weather factor. US Bank Stadium is a covered venue.

Indoor: no weather factor.

DFS

Stack Murray plus Jefferson: the only favorable MIN passing matchup at #20.
Value: Hockenson $3300 (2.87x), cheapest usable pass-catcher on the slate.
Fade Tucker Kraft $4500 into #3 TE defense despite the ceiling.
Contrarian: MarShawn Lloyd $4800 as lead back with Jacobs Out.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Justin Jefferson - receiving yards 74.5 - lean over - #20 WR defense, 32.1 fpa.
Kyler Murray - rushing yards 23.5 - lean over - mobile floor vs #13 defense.
Jordan Love - passing yards 240.5 - lean under - #1 QB defense, 10.4 fpa.
Tucker Kraft - receiving yards 46.5 - lean under - #3 TE defense, 9.4 fpa.

All GB and MIN props with AI grades

Injuries

GB 8 listed

Out Josh Jacobs RB Personal Severe
Out Quan Sturdivant WR Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Aaron Banks G Knee Minimal
Out Anthony Campbell DE Unknown Minimal
Out Johnathan Baldwin FS Unknown Minimal
Out Jordon Riley DT Unknown Minimal
Out Travis Glover OT Unknown Minimal
Out Ty'Ron Hopper ILB Achilles Minimal

MIN 8 listed

Out Demond Claiborne RB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out J.J. McCarthy QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Caleb Tiernan OT Unknown Minimal
Out Elijah Williams DE Unknown Minimal
Out Jakobe Thomas FS Unknown Minimal
Out Jamal Adams LB Unknown Minimal
Out Nick Samac C Unknown Minimal
Out Zemaiah Vaughn CB Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

MIN won last 5 including 16-3 over GB; GB lost last 5 straight.
H2H: MIN won two of last three meetings, holding GB to 3 in January.
Line static: spread MIN -1.5 and total 46.5 unmoved since open.

GB last 5

L 22-39 @ MINL 27-31 @ CHIL 3-16 @ MINL 24-41 vs BALL 16-22 @ CHI

MIN last 5

W 39-22 vs GBW 16-3 vs GBW 23-10 vs DETW 16-13 @ NYGW 34-26 @ DAL

Head-to-head

Sep 13, 2026 GB 22 at MIN 39
Jan 4, 2026 GB 3 at MIN 16
Nov 23, 2025 MIN 6 at GB 23

Watch list

GB backfield: Jacobs Out, confirm Lloyd workload before locking DFS.
Aaron Banks (G, Questionable) knee: interior line impacts GB pass protection.
Line move: total holding 46.5, any drop confirms the under read.

Week 1 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

NE @ SEA