Archived Week 1 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · FOX · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas Indoor Final

Miami Dolphins

0-0 · 7-10 last season

Final13

At LV -3 Total 39.5 LV covered · Over

Las Vegas Raiders

0-0 · 3-14 last season

Final27

Line movement open Sep 6 LV spread -3.5 -3 0.5 Total 39.5 39.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

LV -3 but the Raiders own the NFL-worst offense at 13.8 points per game.

SideBET AWAY +3line moved to Dolphins and LV offense ranks #32 in points.

TotalBET UNDER 39.5LV #32 offense and Bowers out drag the ceiling.

Best bet

Miami +3 as the market drifts toward the Dolphins against the league's worst scoring offense.

Quick hits

LV -3, total 39.5, implied MIA 18.2 / LV 21.2.
Low scoring, LV offense ranks #32 in points and #32 in yards.
Brock Bowers OUT strips Vegas of its top pass-catcher and TE smash spot.
LV favored to lead but both offenses grind, run-leaning game script.
Bowers OUT and Michael Mayer inheriting the #28 TE matchup swings it.

Key matchups

Ashton Jeanty vs MIA: #26 vs RB, 25.3 fpa, smash spot on the ground.
Michael Mayer vs MIA: #28 vs TE, 16.5 fpa, softest matchup with Bowers out.
De'Von Achane vs LV: #20 vs RB, 23.5 fpa, favorable dual-threat volume.
Malik Washington vs LV: #21 vs WR, 32.4 fpa, favorable but low projection.
Greg Dulcich vs LV: #4 vs TE, 10.3 fpa, toughest spot on the board.
Kirk Cousins vs MIA: #24 vs QB, 19.4 fpa, favorable but capped by weapons.

MIA skill positions vs LV defense

#16/32

17.0 fpa

Average

#10/32

20.9 fpa

Bad

#21/32

31.0 fpa

Good

#2/32

9.0 fpa

Avoid

LV skill positions vs MIA defense

#23/32

18.7 fpa

Good

#31/32

28.2 fpa

Elite

#10/32

29.7 fpa

Bad

#25/32

15.1 fpa

Elite

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

Both teams slow, MIA #31 in plays, LV #32 in plays.
LV favored to lead, but #32 offense means the ground game controls tempo.
Points scarce, implied 39.4 total, LV 21.2 and MIA 18.2, red zone dependent.

Projected points (market implied)

MIA18.2

LV21.2

Offense profile

MIARank of 32LV

20.7 #24 Pts / G 14.6 #32

199.9 #25 Pass yds / G 183.3 #30

120.0 #13 Rush yds / G 81.8 #32

56.1 #32 Plays / G 56.1 #31

52% Pass rate 57%

1.3 Pass TD / G 1.3

0.9 Rush TD / G 0.2

2.4 Sacks taken / G 3.5

1.0 INT thrown / G 1.2

Defense profile

MIARank of 32LV

24.6 #20 Pts allowed / G 25.4 #24

224.4 #15 Pass yds allowed 211.6 #10

130.9 #27 Rush yds allowed 117.6 #16

2.2 Sacks / G 2.2

0.6 INT / G 0.5

1.8 Pass TD allowed 1.3

0.9 Rush TD allowed 1.4

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-14, 21 games per team.

Weather

Indoor: no weather factor. Allegiant Stadium is a covered venue.

Indoor: no weather factor.

DFS

Stack: Achane plus Washington, MIA passing into #21 WR defense.
Value: Michael Mayer $2900, 1.78x, inherits #28 TE matchup with Bowers out.
Fade: Kirk Cousins $5000, no Bowers, #32 offense caps upside.
Contrarian: Tre Tucker $4000, target vacuum with Bowers out, 2.23x.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Michael Mayer - receiving yards 40.5 - lean over - #28 TE matchup, top target with Bowers out.
De'Von Achane - receptions 4.5 - lean over (+123) - pass-game role vs #20 RB defense.
Ashton Jeanty - rushing yards 59.5 - lean over - #26 run defense, 25.3 fpa allowed.
Malik Willis - rushing yards 40.5 - lean over - mobile QB adds floor at #16 matchup.

All MIA and LV props with AI grades

Injuries

MIA 8 listed

Out Brady Cook QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Jalen Tolbert WR Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Justin Joly TE Coach'S Decision Severe
IR Cole Turner TE Undisclosed Severe
Out DJ Campbell G Unknown Minimal
Out Rene Konga DT Unknown Minimal
Quest. Kyle Louis LB Knee Minimal
Quest. Ronnie Harrison Jr. LB Hamstring Minimal

LV 8 listed

Out Aidan O'Connell QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Brock Bowers TE Knee Severe
Out Chris Collier RB Undisclosed Severe
Out Corey Rucker WR Undisclosed Severe
Out Brennan Jackson OLB Unknown Minimal
Out Bryce Cabeldue G Unknown Minimal
Out Cody Lindenberg ILB Unknown Minimal
Out Dalton Johnson FS Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

LV lost 4 of last 5, only win 14-12 over KC.
H2H: MIA won last two, 34-19 and 20-13.
Spread moved LV -3.5 to -3.0, toward the Dolphins.

MIA last 5

L 13-27 @ LVL 10-38 @ NEW 20-17 vs TBL 21-45 vs CINL 15-28 @ PIT

LV last 5

W 27-13 vs MIAW 14-12 vs KCL 10-34 vs NYGL 21-23 @ HOUL 0-31 @ PHI

Head-to-head

Sep 13, 2026 MIA 13 at LV 27
Nov 17, 2024 LV 19 at MIA 34
Nov 19, 2023 LV 13 at MIA 20

Watch list

Michael Mayer snap and target confirmation, he is the TE beneficiary with Bowers out.
Will Kacmarek questionable, monitors MIA TE depth behind Dulcich.
Any late spread move off LV -3.0, further drift confirms the Miami side.

Week 1 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

NE @ SEA