Archived Week 1 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · Ford Field, Detroit Indoor Final

New Orleans Saints

0-0 · 6-11 last season

Final30

At DET -6.5 Total 49.5 NO covered · Over

Detroit Lions

0-0 · 10-7 last season

Final31

Line movement open Sep 6 DET spread -6.5 -6.5 no move Total 49.5 49.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

DET -6.5 with implied 28.0, but Olave into DET's 29th-ranked pass defense is the game's cleanest edge.

SideBET AWAY +6.5Goff faces NO's #4 QB defense while Olave feasts, keeping it within a score.

TotalPASSprojected total sits exactly on 49.5.

Best bet

Chris Olave over 75.5 receiving yards against Detroit's 29th-ranked pass defense.

Quick hits

Market DET -6.5, total 49.5, implied NO 21.5 / DET 28.0, no movement.
Balanced-to-high: DET #2 offense (29.2), but NO defense ranks #8 pass and #4 vs QB.
Decisive spot: Olave vs DET #29 WR defense (37.1 fpa) is a SMASH.
Script: DET leads, both teams near 56-57% pass; NO chases through the air.
Swing factor: Kamara questionable (knee) reshapes the NO backfield around Etienne.

Key matchups

Chris Olave vs DET #29 WR (37.1 fpa): SMASH, softest spot on the board.
Tyler Shough vs DET #25 QB (19.7 fpa): FAVORABLE, exploit a leaky pass funnel.
Jared Goff vs NO #4 QB (13.9 fpa): TOUGH, stingiest QB matchup here.
Amon-Ra St. Brown vs NO #6 WR (26.4 fpa): TOUGH, capped ceiling.
Jahmyr Gibbs vs NO #14 RB (21.0 fpa): NEUTRAL, still projects a game-high 26.4.
Juwan Johnson vs DET #19 TE (13.9 fpa): NEUTRAL, secondary target only.

NO skill positions vs DET defense

#30/32

21.6 fpa

Elite

#11/32

21.4 fpa

Bad

#32/32

41.4 fpa

Elite

#28/32

16.7 fpa

Elite

DET skill positions vs NO defense

#3/32

14.4 fpa

Avoid

#24/32

24.8 fpa

Good

#6/32

28.6 fpa

Avoid

#10/32

11.8 fpa

Bad

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

Moderate pace, both around 56-57% pass; DET runs 62 plays, NO 63.
DET favored by 6.5 leans on Gibbs (1.3 rush TD) with play-action; NO throws to chase.
Points split 28.0 to 21.5; DET's 2.1 pass TD and Gibbs anchor the red zone.

Projected points (market implied)

NO21.5

DET28.0

Offense profile

NORank of 32DET

19.0 #28 Pts / G 29.4 #2

248.6 #6 Pass yds / G 267.5 #3

93.4 #29 Rush yds / G 127.1 #9

64.2 #5 Plays / G 63.0 #12

58% Pass rate 56%

1.3 Pass TD / G 2.1

0.5 Rush TD / G 1.4

3.1 Sacks taken / G 2.1

0.8 INT thrown / G 0.4

Defense profile

NORank of 32DET

23.2 #15 Pts allowed / G 24.5 #19

199.9 #6 Pass yds allowed 250.2 #25

121.7 #19 Rush yds allowed 115.3 #15

2.4 Sacks / G 3.2

0.6 INT / G 0.9

1.5 Pass TD allowed 1.9

0.8 Rush TD allowed 0.9

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-14, 21 games per team.

Weather

Indoor: no weather factor. Ford Field is a covered venue.

Indoor: no weather factor.

DFS

Stack Shough plus Olave: favorable QB into the #29 WR matchup.
Value Juwan Johnson $3700 (2.83x): cheap TE with 20.6-point ceiling.
Fade Amon-Ra St. Brown $7500: TOUGH draw vs NO #6 WR defense.
Contrarian Jameson Williams $6000: field piles on Gibbs, Williams offers leverage upside.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Chris Olave - receiving yards 75.5 - OVER - #29 WR matchup, 29.6 ceiling.
Jahmyr Gibbs - rushing yards 86.5 - OVER - 26.4 projection leads all skill players.
Jared Goff - passing yards 260.5 - UNDER - NO #4 vs QB, avoid tag.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - receiving yards 75.5 - UNDER - TOUGH vs NO #6 WR defense.

All NO and DET props with AI grades

Injuries

NO 8 listed

Out Alvin Kamara RB Knee Severe
Out Oscar Delp TE Unknown Severe
Out Zach Wilson QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Cameron Jordan OLB Unknown Minimal
Out David Long DB Undisclosed Minimal
Out Dillon Radunz G Unknown Minimal
Out John Ridgeway DT Unknown Minimal
Out Khristian Boyd DT Unknown Minimal

DET 8 listed

Out Ahmed Hassanein DE Unknown Minimal
Out Christian Izien FS Groin Minimal
Out Ennis Rakestraw Jr. CB Unknown Minimal
Out Giovanni Manu OT Knee Minimal
Out Jimmy Rolder LB Unknown Minimal
Out Kerby Joseph FS Knee Minimal
Out Mekhi Wingo DT Unknown Minimal
Quest. Christian Mahogany G Knee Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

NO won 4 of last 5, including 34-26 at TEN; form trending up.
DET went 2-3 in last 5, allowing 41 and 29 in two losses.
Line static: spread and total unmoved from open (DET -6.5, 49.5).

NO last 5

L 30-31 @ DETL 17-19 @ ATLW 34-26 @ TENW 29-6 vs NYJW 20-17 vs CAR

DET last 5

W 31-30 vs NOW 19-16 @ CHIL 10-23 @ MINL 24-29 vs PITL 34-41 @ LA

Head-to-head

Sep 13, 2026 NO 30 at DET 31
Dec 3, 2023 DET 33 at NO 28

Watch list

Alvin Kamara (knee, questionable): active status shifts NO backfield volume to Etienne.
Kerby Joseph (out) and Brian Branch (IR): thinned NO secondary boosts Saints WR props.
Line at DET -6.5: any move toward NO confirms the dog-side lean.

Week 1 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

NE @ SEA