Archived Week 1 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET · ESPN · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
DivisionPrimetime Live
Denver Broncos
0-0 · 14-4 last season
Implied20.0
At
KC -2.5 Total 42.5 Closed · DEN +112 · KC -132
Kansas City Chiefs
0-0 · 6-10 last season
Implied22.5
Line movement open Sep 6
KC spread
-2.5 -2.5
no move
Total
43.5 42.5
1.0
FanDuel
The angle
Pass · 3/10
KC -2.5 with implied 23.0, but two top-5 defenses and 30 mph gusts scream under 43.5.
SidePASSprojected margin of 2.5 equals the spread exactly.
TotalBET UNDER 43.5two top-5 defenses, weak KC offense, 30 mph gusts.
Best bet
Under 43.5: both defenses allow under 19 per game and gusts to 30 mph choke the passing game.
Quick hits
- KC -2.5, total 43.5, implied DEN 20.5 / KC 23.0, no line move.
- Low scoring: both defenses top-5 in points allowed, KC offense ranks #20.
- Kelce vs DEN #23 TE is the softest exploitable edge on the board.
- Tight script, KC narrow favorite, both offenses balanced near 57-58% pass.
- Wind 14 mph gusting 30 caps deep passing and kicking, pushes under.
Key matchups
- Travis Kelce vs DEN #23 TE: 14.5 fpa, favorable, best skill spot in the game.
- Rashee Rice vs DEN #9 WR: 27.5 fpa, neutral, 14.1 proj still team-high.
- Jaylen Waddle vs KC #12 WR: 28.7 fpa, neutral, 12.9 proj.
- Kenneth Walker vs DEN #1 RB: 16.9 fpa, tough, into the league's stingiest run front.
- J.K. Dobbins vs KC #6 RB: 19.6 fpa, tough, ground yards hard to find.
- Bo Nix vs KC #14 QB: 16.0 fpa, neutral, 16.9 proj.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN |
Bo Nix | QB | 16.2 | $5,800 | KC #10 of 32 | 16.0 | Neutral |
| DEN |
Jaylen Waddle | WR | 12.4 | $6,300 | KC #9 of 32 | 28.7 | Neutral |
| DEN |
J.K. Dobbins | RB | 10.9 | $5,300 | KC #9 of 32 | 19.6 | Neutral |
| DEN |
Evan Engram | TE | 6.5 | $3,400 | KC #7 of 32 | 11.3 | Tough |
| KC |
Kenneth Walker III | RB | 17.5 | $6,500 | DEN #1 of 32 | 16.9 | Tough |
| KC |
Patrick Mahomes | QB | 16.8 | $5,500 | DEN #7 of 32 | 15.4 | Tough |
| KC |
Rashee Rice | WR | 15.4 | $6,500 | DEN #3 of 32 | 27.5 | Tough |
| KC |
Travis Kelce | TE | 11.2 | $4,000 | DEN #22 of 32 | 14.5 | Favorable |
DEN skill positions vs KC defenseQB
#10/32
16.0 fpa
RB
#9/32
19.6 fpa
WR
#9/32
28.7 fpa
TE
#7/32
11.3 fpa
KC skill positions vs DEN defenseQB
#7/32
15.4 fpa
RB
#1/32
16.9 fpa
WR
#3/32
27.5 fpa
TE
#22/32
14.5 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- Pace moderate, DEN 64 plays #8, both teams pass 57-58%.
- KC favored by 2.5 but only 23.0 implied, expect a tight, low-volume script.
- Points scarce: 43.5 total, both defenses allow under 19 per game, red-zone TDs limited.
Projected points (market implied)
DEN20.0
KC22.5
Offense profile
DENRank of 32KC
23.4
#15
Pts / G
21.3
#20
231.5
#17
Pass yds / G
232.4
#16
112.0
#21
Rush yds / G
107.1
#25
63.7
#8
Plays / G
62.7
#14
58%
Pass rate
57%
1.6
Pass TD / G
1.4
0.9
Rush TD / G
0.9
1.4
Sacks taken / G
2.8
0.6
INT thrown / G
0.8
Defense profile
DENRank of 32KC
18.8
#4
Pts allowed / G
18.8
#5
214.9
#12
Pass yds allowed
198.1
#5
100.1
#4
Rush yds allowed
106.7
#8
3.9
Sacks / G
2.0
0.7
INT / G
0.6
1.2
Pass TD allowed
0.9
0.7
Rush TD allowed
0.9
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-14, 21 games per team.
Weather
At kickoff · 2026-09-14 19:00 local
Moderate impact
Conditions
Sunny
Temp
91°F
feels 92°
Wind
16 mph S
gusts 29 mph
Rain
1%
0.00 in
Humidity
41%
- Wind 15 mph: field goals past 45 and deep shots get harder
- 90F: heat, rotation depth matters late
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
- Sunny 89F but wind 14 mph gusting 30 from the south.
- Deep passing and field goals suffer, moderate under lean.
DFS
- Stack Mahomes ($5500, 3.07x) with Kelce ($4000, 2.58x) into the #23 TE spot.
- Value: Travis Kelce $4000 at 2.58x is the cleanest matchup-price combo.
- Fade J.K. Dobbins $5300 into DEN-mirroring KC #6 run defense.
- Contrarian: Bo Nix $5800 as underdog QB with 64-play, pass-first script.
DEN projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Bo Nix | 16.2 | 11.1 / 27.2 | $5,800 | 2.80x | $7,500 | #10 |
| WR | Jaylen Waddle | 12.4 | 6.5 / 26.9 | $6,300 | 1.97x | $6,300 | #9 |
| RB | J.K. Dobbins | 10.9 | 5.9 / 21.3 | $5,300 | 2.06x | $6,300 | #9 |
| WR | Courtland Sutton | 10.8 | 4.0 / 19.6 | $6,000 | 1.79x | $6,800 | #9 |
| RB | RJ Harvey | 8.2 | 4.5 / 17.7 | $5,400 | 1.52x | $5,900 | #9 |
| TE | Evan Engram | 6.5 | 2.3 / 15.1 | $3,400 | 1.90x | $5,000 | #7 |
| WR | Pat Bryant | 5.9 | 1.6 / 14.0 | $4,200 | 1.41x | $4,300 | #9 |
KC projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | 17.5 | 10.4 / 28.8 | $6,500 | 2.69x | $7,500 | #1 |
| QB | Patrick Mahomes | 16.8 | 10.8 / 26.6 | $5,500 | 3.05x | $7,900 | #7 |
| WR | Rashee Rice | 15.4 | 8.3 / 28.5 | $6,500 | 2.37x | $7,600 | #3 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | 11.2 | 5.2 / 21.6 | $4,000 | 2.79x | $5,500 | #22 |
| WR | Xavier Worthy | 9.2 | 3.3 / 16.4 | $4,500 | 2.05x | $6,200 | #3 |
| RB | Emmett Johnson | 4.6 | 1.9 / 11.3 | $4,500 | 1.02x | $4,400 | #1 |
| WR | Tyquan Thornton | 3.9 | 0.0 / 10.6 | $3,500 | 1.11x | $5,000 | #3 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Travis Kelce - receptions 3.5 (o-150) - lean over - #23 TE matchup, 10.3 proj.
- Kenneth Walker - rushing 61.5 (o+145) - lean under - DEN #1 run defense.
- Rashee Rice - receptions 5.5 (o+103) - lean over - team-high 14.1 proj.
- Mahomes - passing yards 225.5 (o+175) - lean under - 30 mph gusts cap deep shots.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Over | Book | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III RB KC | Rush yds | 65.5 | 84.7 | +145 | Bovada | #4 |
| Kenneth Walker III RB KC | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.4 | +138 | FanDuel | #12 |
| Kenneth Walker III RB KC | Rec yds | 21.5 | 24.1 | -110 | DraftKings | #12 |
| Patrick Mahomes QB KC | Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.3 | +130 | DraftKings | #5 |
| Patrick Mahomes QB KC | Pass yds | 225.5 | 201.5 | +175 | Bovada | #12 |
| Patrick Mahomes QB KC | Rush yds | 14.5 | 22.1 | -113 | FanDuel | #4 |
| Bo Nix QB DEN | Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.3 | +150 | FanDuel | #1 |
| Bo Nix QB DEN | Pass yds | 226.5 | 189.9 | +175 | Bovada | #5 |
| Bo Nix QB DEN | Rush yds | 18.5 | 17.3 | -108 | BetOnline | #8 |
| Rashee Rice WR KC | Receptions | 4.5 | 5.3 | +125 | BetOnline | #12 |
| Rashee Rice WR KC | Rec yds | 52.5 | 57.4 | +135 | Bovada | #12 |
| Jaylen Waddle WR DEN | Receptions | 4.5 | 3.9 | -122 | BetRivers | #5 |
| Jaylen Waddle WR DEN | Rec yds | 60.5 | 57.5 | +135 | Bovada | #5 |
| Travis Kelce TE KC | Receptions | 3.5 | 4.6 | +130 | FanDuel | #12 |
Best available over price per line. Opp rank = the defense's rank in that stat allowed (32 allows the most).
All DEN and KC props with AI gradesInjuries
DEN 8 listed- IR Caleb Lohner TE Lower Body Severe
- Out Jonathon Cooper OLB Colo. Minimal
- Out Levelle Bailey ILB Leg Minimal
- Out Matt Henningsen DE Unknown Minimal
- Out Michael Deiter C Unknown Minimal
- Out Reese Taylor CB Unknown Minimal
- IR Frank Crum OT Undisclosed Minimal
- IR Nick Gargiulo G Knee Minimal
KC 7 listed- Out Jeff Caldwell WR Knee Severe
- IR John Michael Gyllenborg TE Knee Severe
- Out Chamarri Conner FS Knee Minimal
- Out Chukwuebuka Godrick OT Unknown Minimal
- Out Josh Simmons OT Back Minimal
- IR Ethan Downs DE Downs Minimal
- IR Matt Waletzko OT Undisclosed Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- KC lost last 5, scoring 9-14, offense sputtering into this spot.
- DEN won last H2H 20-13 and 2 of last 3 meetings.
- Line static: spread KC -2.5 and total 43.5 unmoved since open.
DEN last 5L 7-10 vs NEW 33-30 vs BUFW 19-3 vs LACW 20-13 @ KCL 20-34 vs JAX
KC last 5L 12-14 @ LVL 13-20 vs DENL 9-26 @ TENL 13-16 vs LACL 10-20 vs HOU
Head-to-head
- Dec 25, 2025 DEN 20 at KC 13
- Nov 16, 2025 KC 19 at DEN 22
- Nov 10, 2024 DEN 14 at KC 16
Watch list
- Chris Jones (DT, Questionable, calf) - affects DEN pass protection and total.
- Josh Simmons (OT, Questionable, back) - KC line health tied to Mahomes pressure.
- Wind gusts to 30 mph - confirm at kickoff, strengthens the under.
Week 1 slate
Swipe for all 16 games this week.
NE @ SEA
Wed 8:20 PM ET
SEA -3.5
O/U 44.5
Final
SF @ LA
Thu 8:35 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 47.5
Final
ATL @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT -5.5
O/U 40.5
Final
BAL @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -3.5
O/U 47.5
Final
BUF @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -1.5
O/U 44.5
Final
CHI @ CAR
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -3
O/U 47.5
Final
CLE @ JAX
Sun 1:00 PM ET
JAX -8.5
O/U 40.5
Final
NO @ DET
Sun 1:00 PM ET
DET -6.5
O/U 49.5
Final
NYJ @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TEN -1.5
O/U 38.5
Final
TB @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -3.5
O/U 50.5
Final
ARI @ LAC
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LAC -9.5
O/U 47.5
Final
GB @ MIN
Sun 4:25 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 46.5
Final
MIA @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LV -3
O/U 39.5
Final
WAS @ PHI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
PHI -5.5
O/U 44.5
Final
DAL @ NYG
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DAL -3
O/U 47.5
Final
DEN @ KC
Mon 8:15 PM ET
KC -2.5
O/U 42.5
Kicked off