Archived Week 1 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · FOX · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia Division Final

Washington Commanders

0-0 · 4-12 last season

Final22

At PHI -5.5 Total 44.5 WAS covered · Over

Philadelphia Eagles

0-0 · 11-7 last season

Final24

Line movement open Sep 6 PHI spread -5.5 -5.5 no move Total 44.5 44.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Play · 6/10

Saquon Barkley SMASHES a WAS run defense ranked 30th, allowing 28.0 fpa to backs.

SideBET HOME -5.5PHI's #7 defense and Barkley's #30 matchup outclass a 22nd-ranked WAS offense.

TotalPASSDraftEdge total lands exactly at 44.5 with no edge.

Best bet

Saquon Barkley over 76.5 rushing yards against a WAS front ranked 30th and allowing 28.0 fpa to backs.

Quick hits

PHI -5.5, total 44.5, implied PHI 25.0 / WAS 19.5.
Balanced-to-modest total; PHI's #7 defense caps a WAS offense ranked 22nd in points.
PHI skill players feast: WAS defense ranks 29th QB, 30th RB, 27th TE.
PHI leads and grinds run-heavy behind Barkley; WAS trails and must pass at a 48% rate.
WAS defensive front (Payne, Oweh, Chaisson all questionable) could crack the total open.

Key matchups

Saquon Barkley vs WAS RB defense: 28.0 fpa, #30, SMASH.
Jalen Hurts vs WAS QB defense: 20.5 fpa, #29, SMASH.
Dallas Goedert vs WAS TE defense: 16.0 fpa, #27, SMASH.
Rachaad White vs PHI RB defense: 23.8 fpa, #22, FAVORABLE.
Terry McLaurin vs PHI WR defense: 26.6 fpa, #8, TOUGH neutral.
Chig Okonkwo vs PHI TE defense: 8.5 fpa, #2, TOUGH.

WAS skill positions vs PHI defense

#8/32

15.9 fpa

Avoid

#16/32

22.9 fpa

Average

#7/32

28.6 fpa

Avoid

#1/32

8.2 fpa

Avoid

PHI skill positions vs WAS defense

#29/32

21.4 fpa

Elite

#22/32

24.7 fpa

Good

#25/32

33.1 fpa

Elite

#30/32

17.5 fpa

Elite

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

PHI runs 60 plays at 52% pass; WAS plays slow at 57 plays, 29th.
Favorite PHI scripts a lead and leans on Barkley; WAS forced to throw down.
Points skew Philadelphia: 25.0 implied vs 19.5, Hurts 1.5 pass TD line.

Projected points (market implied)

WAS19.5

PHI25.0

Offense profile

WASRank of 32PHI

21.2 #22 Pts / G 22.1 #18

191.2 #28 Pass yds / G 206.5 #24

134.4 #5 Rush yds / G 117.0 #16

57.9 #29 Plays / G 59.6 #22

48% Pass rate 52%

1.1 Pass TD / G 1.7

1.2 Rush TD / G 0.8

1.9 Sacks taken / G 2.1

0.8 INT thrown / G 0.4

Defense profile

WASRank of 32PHI

27.6 #27 Pts allowed / G 19.4 #6

257.3 #30 Pass yds allowed 208.0 #9

145.8 #31 Rush yds allowed 122.4 #20

2.6 Sacks / G 2.4

0.5 INT / G 0.8

2.1 Pass TD allowed 1.1

1.1 Rush TD allowed 1.1

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-14, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-13 16:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Patchy rain nearby

Temp

84°F

feels 87°

Wind

6 mph W

gusts 8 mph

Rain

11%

0.00 in

Humidity

58%

Patchy rain nearby, 84F, wind 6 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Sunny, 84F, wind 8 mph gusting 13, 3% rain: no weather factor.
Passing and kicking unaffected; total and DFS unchanged by conditions.

DFS

Stack: Hurts + Barkley + Goedert, all three SMASH spots against WAS.
Value: Goedert $4100 (2.55x) into #27 TE defense is the slate's pivot.
Fade: Okonkwo $4000 vs PHI's #2 TE defense, 8.5 fpa allowed.
Contrarian: Daniels $6500 rushing upside (36.5 line) if WAS chases points.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Saquon Barkley - rush yards 76.5 - OVER - #30 run defense allowing 146 rush yds.
Dallas Goedert - rec yards 36.5 - OVER - #27 TE defense, 16.0 fpa, SMASH tag.
DeVonta Smith - receptions 5.5 - OVER - #24 WR defense at 34.9 fpa allowed.
Chig Okonkwo - receptions 2.5 - UNDER - #2 TE defense, only 8.5 fpa.

All WAS and PHI props with AI grades

Injuries

WAS 8 listed

Out Athan Kaliakmanis QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Luke McCaffrey WR Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Treylon Burks WR Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Noah Togiai G Unknown Minimal
Out Ricky Barber DT Unknown Minimal
Quest. Chig Okonkwo TE Hamstring Minimal
Quest. Frankie Luvu ILB Groin Minimal
Quest. Jordan Magee ILB Hamstring Minimal

PHI 8 listed

Out Cole Payton QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Elijah Moore WR Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Johnny Wilson WR Knee Severe
Out Tanner McKee QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Andre' Sam FS Foot Minimal
Out Jonathan Greenard OLB Unknown Minimal
Out Micah Morris G Unknown Minimal
Out Tucker Large FS Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

Form: WAS lost 4 of last 5; PHI split 2-2 recently after 31-0 win.
H2H: WAS won last meeting 24-17, but PHI took 29-18 in December.
Line: PHI -5.5 and 44.5 both flat since open, no movement.

WAS last 5

L 22-24 @ PHIW 24-17 @ PHIL 23-30 vs DALL 18-29 vs PHIW 29-21 @ NYG

PHI last 5

W 24-22 vs WASL 19-23 vs SFL 17-24 vs WASW 13-12 @ BUFW 29-18 @ WAS

Head-to-head

Sep 13, 2026 WAS 22 at PHI 24
Jan 4, 2026 WAS 24 at PHI 17
Dec 20, 2025 PHI 29 at WAS 18

Watch list

Croskey-Merritt (Groin) questionable - his status shifts WAS backfield touches to White.
Payne, Oweh, Chaisson all questionable - more absences widen PHI's rushing edge.
Greenard (Pectoral) questionable - fewer sacks help WAS keep Daniels upright.

Week 1 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

NE @ SEA