Atlanta Falcons
20260-0 20258-8
@
Pittsburgh Steelers
20260-0 20259-8
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh FOX Unlocks Fri Sep 11, 1:00 PM ET

ATL @ PIT breakdown unlocks Fri Sep 11, 1:00 PM ET

The AI read lands 48 hours before kickoff. The market, key matchups, injuries and weather below are live now.
SpreadPIT -3.5
Total41.5
ATL implied19.0
PIT implied22.5
ATL ML+150
PIT ML-178
Line movement open Sep 6 PIT spread -3.5 -3.5 no move Total 41.5 41.5 no move FanDuel

Key matchups

TeamPlayerPos ProjDK $ vs defenseFPAEdge
ATL Bijan Robinson RB 18.7 $7,700 PIT #8 of 32 20.2 Neutral
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB 15.7 $4,800 PIT #27 of 32 20.4 Smash
ATL Drake London WR 15.5 $6,500 PIT #24 of 32 34.9 Favorable
ATL Kyle Pitts Sr. TE 10.7 $4,700 PIT #29 of 32 16.7 Smash
PIT Aaron Rodgers QB 15.8 $5,300 ATL #17 of 32 18.2 Neutral
PIT Rico Dowdle RB 12.9 $5,200 ATL #11 of 32 20.6 Neutral
PIT DK Metcalf WR 12.0 $5,400 ATL #26 of 32 35.2 Smash
PIT Pat Freiermuth TE 7.7 $3,400 ATL #8 of 32 11.2 Neutral
ATL skill positions vs PIT defense
QB
#27/32
20.4 fpa
Elite
RB
#8/32
20.2 fpa
Avoid
WR
#24/32
34.9 fpa
Good
TE
#29/32
16.7 fpa
Elite
PIT skill positions vs ATL defense
QB
#17/32
18.2 fpa
Average
RB
#11/32
20.6 fpa
Bad
WR
#26/32
35.2 fpa
Elite
TE
#8/32
11.2 fpa
Avoid

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

Projected points (market implied)
ATL19.0
PIT22.5
Offense profile
ATLRank of 32PIT
20.8 #24 Pts / G 21.7 #19
212.9 #21 Pass yds / G 208.1 #22
129.3 #7 Rush yds / G 103.9 #26
61.1 #18 Plays / G 58.2 #27
53% Pass rate 58%
1.1 Pass TD / G 1.3
1.0 Rush TD / G 0.9
1.6 Sacks taken / G 1.8
0.5 INT thrown / G 0.6
Defense profile
ATLRank of 32PIT
23.6 #19 Pts allowed / G 22.6 #15
225.6 #16 Pass yds allowed 262.9 #29
127.8 #24 Rush yds allowed 112.0 #12
3.5 Sacks / G 2.9
1.0 INT / G 0.9
1.5 Pass TD allowed 1.8
0.8 Rush TD allowed 0.5

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-09, 20 games per team.

Weather

Forecast lands 2 days before kickoff (Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh)

DFS

ATL projected players
PosPlayerProj Floor / ceilDK $Val FD $vs
RB Bijan Robinson 18.7 12.5 / 33.7 $7,700 2.43x $8,800 #8
QB Michael Penix Jr. 15.7 8.8 / 23.5 $4,800 3.28x $6,600 #27
WR Drake London 15.5 6.1 / 28.8 $6,500 2.38x $7,900 #24
TE Kyle Pitts Sr. 10.7 3.8 / 22.7 $4,700 2.27x $5,500 #29
WR Jahan Dotson 5.0 0.0 / 13.0 $3,700 1.35x $5,400 #24
RB Brian Robinson Jr. 4.8 1.3 / 13.0 $4,700 1.02x $5,200 #8
WR Olamide Zaccheaus 3.6 0.0 / 10.7 $3,500 1.03x $5,300 #24
PIT projected players
PosPlayerProj Floor / ceilDK $Val FD $vs
QB Aaron Rodgers 15.8 9.1 / 24.3 $5,300 2.99x $7,100 #17
RB Rico Dowdle 12.9 6.1 / 22.3 $5,200 2.48x $6,100 #11
WR DK Metcalf 12.0 3.9 / 23.3 $5,400 2.23x $7,000 #26
RB Jaylen Warren 11.2 6.6 / 23.7 $5,400 2.07x $6,500 #11
WR Michael Pittman Jr. 9.9 4.2 / 22.6 $4,900 2.01x $5,800 #26
TE Pat Freiermuth 7.7 1.9 / 18.9 $3,400 2.25x $4,800 #8
TE Darnell Washington 5.5 0.0 / 16.4 $3,000 1.83x $4,900 #8

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

PlayerMarketLine ProjOverBookOpp rank
Bijan Robinson RB ATL Rush yds 75.5 80.6 -111 DraftKings #12
Bijan Robinson RB ATL Receptions 4.5 4.3 +113 DraftKings #30
Bijan Robinson RB ATL Rec yds 35.5 44.7 -111 DraftKings #30
Aaron Rodgers QB PIT Pass TD 1.5 1.7 +132 DraftKings #15
Aaron Rodgers QB PIT Pass yds 213.5 239.9 -111 DraftKings #16
Aaron Rodgers QB PIT Rush yds 0.5 3.5 -107 DraftKings #24
Drake London WR ATL Receptions 5.5 4.7 -105 BetMGM #30
Drake London WR ATL Rec yds 63.5 63.9 -114 DraftKings #30
Rico Dowdle RB PIT Rush yds 42.5 62.3 -112 DraftKings #24
Rico Dowdle RB PIT Receptions 1.5 2.3 -135 DraftKings #16
Rico Dowdle RB PIT Rec yds 10.5 17.4 -107 DraftKings #16
DK Metcalf WR PIT Receptions 3.5 3.9 +165 Fanatics #16
DK Metcalf WR PIT Rec yds 47.5 56.5 -110 DraftKings #16
Jaylen Warren RB PIT Rush yds 42.5 58.5 -112 DraftKings #24

Best available over price per line. Opp rank = the defense's rank in that stat allowed (32 allows the most).

All ATL and PIT props with AI grades

Injuries

ATL 8 listed
  • IR Beaux Collins WR Undisclosed Severe
  • IR Trey Sermon RB Undisclosed Severe
  • Quest. Michael Penix Jr. QB Knee Moderate
  • Out Anterio Thompson DT Undisclosed Minimal
  • Out Malik Verdon ILB Unknown Minimal
  • Quest. Billy Bowman Jr. CB Achilles Minimal
  • IR DeAngelo Malone OLB Undisclosed Minimal
  • IR JD Bertrand ILB Undisclosed Minimal
PIT 8 listed
  • Out Cole Burgess WR Unknown Severe
  • Out DeShon Elliott FS Undisclosed Minimal
  • Out Donte Kent CB Undisclosed Minimal
  • Out Jack Driscoll OT Undisclosed Minimal
  • Out Logan Lee DT Unknown Minimal
  • Quest. Ben Skowronek WR Unknown Minimal
  • Quest. DK Metcalf WR Undisclosed Minimal
  • Quest. Michael Pittman WR Hamstring Minimal
Full NFL injury report

Week 1 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.
NE @ SEA
Wed 8:20 PM ET
SEA -3.5
O/U 44.5
Ready
SF @ LA
Thu 8:35 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 48.5
Ready
ATL @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT -3.5
O/U 41.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
BAL @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -3.5
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
BUF @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -1.5
O/U 44.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
CHI @ CAR
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -3
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
CLE @ JAX
Sun 1:00 PM ET
JAX -8.5
O/U 40.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
NO @ DET
Sun 1:00 PM ET
DET -6.5
O/U 49.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
NYJ @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TEN -1.5
O/U 39.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
TB @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -3.5
O/U 50.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
ARI @ LAC
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LAC -9.5
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
GB @ MIN
Sun 4:25 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 46.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
MIA @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LV -3.5
O/U 40.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
WAS @ PHI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
PHI -5.5
O/U 44.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
DAL @ NYG
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DAL -2.5
O/U 48.5
Unlocks Fri 8:20 PM
DEN @ KC
Mon 8:15 PM ET
KC -2.5
O/U 43.5
Unlocks Sat 8:15 PM
Updated Sep 9, 1:18 PM ET For entertainment and informational purposes only; not betting or gambling advice.