Archived Week 1 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh Final

Atlanta Falcons

0-0 · 8-9 last season

Final13

At PIT -5.5 Total 40.5 PIT covered · Under

Pittsburgh Steelers

0-0 · 10-8 last season

Final20

Line movement open Sep 6 PIT spread -3.5 -5.5 2.0 Total 41.5 40.5 1.0

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 2/10

PIT -5.5 with a 40.5 total, but Atlanta's QB room is gutted before kickoff.

SidePASSmodel margin 5.5 equals the spread exactly, no edge and ATL QB unresolved.

TotalPASSprojected total 40.5 sits right on the line.

Best bet

DK Metcalf over 52.5 receiving yards, favorable draw against ATL's #25 WR defense allowing 35.2 fpa.

Quick hits

Market: PIT -5.5, total 40.5, implied ATL 17.5 and PIT 23.0.
Low scoring: 40.5 total is below average, both offenses rank 19th or worse in points.
Decisive matchup: ATL pass catchers vs PIT soft coverage, WR #23, TE #29, QB #27.
Script: PIT favored by 5.5, leads and controls, 58% pass rate offense.
Changes it: Penix out, Tua questionable and projection-flagged out, ATL QB is the swing.

Key matchups

Kyle Pitts vs PIT #29 WR TE defense: 16.7 fpa, softest spot, SMASH if a QB throws.
Drake London vs PIT #23 WR defense: 34.9 fpa, FAVORABLE, top ATL target.
DK Metcalf vs ATL #25 WR defense: 35.2 fpa, FAVORABLE, PIT alpha.
Bijan Robinson vs PIT #9 RB defense: 20.2 fpa, NEUTRAL, tough front despite 19.8 projection.
Jaylen Warren vs ATL #11 RB defense: 20.6 fpa, NEUTRAL, split with Dowdle.
Pat Freiermuth vs ATL #8 TE defense: 11.2 fpa, NEUTRAL, stingy TE matchup.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
PIT	Brandon Smith	WR	2.9	$3,000	ATL #24 of 32	32.7	Favorable

ATL skill positions vs PIT defense

#17/32

17.8 fpa

Average

#20/32

24.1 fpa

Good

#12/32

29.9 fpa

Bad

#18/32

13.4 fpa

Average

PIT skill positions vs ATL defense

#14/32

17.0 fpa

Bad

#8/32

19.5 fpa

Avoid

#24/32

32.7 fpa

Good

#14/32

12.9 fpa

Bad

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

Pace slow: PIT 58 plays (#27), ATL 61 (#18), neither offense pushes tempo.
PIT leads and grinds, ATL trails and leans Bijan plus short passing.
Points scarce: implied 23.0 and 17.5, low pass-TD rates cap the ceiling.

Projected points (market implied)

ATL17.5

PIT23.0

Offense profile

ATLRank of 32PIT

20.4 #26 Pts / G 21.6 #19

209.0 #22 Pass yds / G 208.9 #23

128.8 #7 Rush yds / G 101.3 #26

60.8 #19 Plays / G 58.6 #27

52% Pass rate 58%

1.1 Pass TD / G 1.3

0.9 Rush TD / G 0.9

1.7 Sacks taken / G 1.8

0.6 INT thrown / G 0.6

Defense profile

ATLRank of 32PIT

23.4 #17 Pts allowed / G 22.1 #11

225.5 #17 Pass yds allowed 256.4 #29

123.7 #21 Rush yds allowed 112.4 #11

3.4 Sacks / G 3.0

0.9 INT / G 1.0

1.5 Pass TD allowed 1.7

0.7 Rush TD allowed 0.4

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-14, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-13 13:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Light rain shower

Temp

75°F

feels 77°

Wind

6 mph W

gusts 9 mph

Rain

34%

0.01 in

Humidity

77%

Light rain shower, 74F, wind 6 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Patchy rain, 72F, wind 7 mph, precip 0.00 in/hr, no weather factor.
DraftEdge read confirms impact none, passing and kicking unaffected.

DFS

PIT projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
WR	Brandon Smith	2.9	0.3 / 8.8	$3,000	0.98x	$4,300	#24

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

DK Metcalf - receiving yards 52.5 - lean over - ATL #25 vs WR, 35.2 fpa.
Rico Dowdle - rushing yards 45.5 - lean over - ATL #11 run defense trending down.
Drake London - receiving yards 55.5 - lean over - PIT #23 WR, but QB risk.
Aaron Rodgers - passing yards 214.5 - lean over - ATL #18 QB, favorable WR matchup.

All ATL and PIT props with AI grades

Injuries

ATL 8 listed

Out Michael Penix Jr. QB Knee Severe
Out Tua Tagovailoa QB Unknown Severe
Out Anterio Thompson DT Undisclosed Minimal
Out Billy Bowman Jr. CB Unknown Minimal
Out Christian Harris ILB Unknown Minimal
Out Ethan Onianwa OT Unknown Minimal
Out Malcolm DeWalt IV CB Unknown Minimal
Quest. Chris Lindstrom G Unknown Minimal

PIT 8 listed

Out Cole Burgess WR Unknown Severe
Out Drew Allar QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Will Howard QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Donte Kent CB Undisclosed Minimal
Out Gabriel Rubio DT Coach'S Decision Minimal
Out Gennings Dunker G Coach'S Decision Minimal
Out Jack Driscoll OT Undisclosed Minimal
Out Joey Porter Jr. CB Back Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

Line moved PIT -3.5 to -5.5, two points toward Pittsburgh, total down to 40.5.
Head-to-head: PIT won both recent meetings, 18-10 and 19-16, low scores.
Form: ATL 4-1 last five, PIT 3-2 with two blowout losses (6-30, 6-13).

ATL last 5

L 13-20 @ PITW 19-17 vs NOW 27-24 vs LAW 26-19 @ ARIW 29-28 @ TB

PIT last 5

W 20-13 vs ATLL 6-30 vs HOUW 26-24 vs BALL 6-13 @ CLEW 29-24 @ DET

Head-to-head

Sep 13, 2026 ATL 13 at PIT 20
Sep 8, 2024 PIT 18 at ATL 10
Dec 4, 2022 PIT 19 at ATL 16

Watch list

Tua Tagovailoa status: questionable and projection-flagged out, with Penix already out, ATL QB decides the total.
Joey Porter Jr. (Back, questionable): if out, London and Pittman matchups soften further.
Zachariah Branch (Hamstring, questionable): affects ATL WR depth behind London.
Spread at PIT -5.5: watch for further move if ATL QB news breaks.

Week 1 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

NE @ SEA