Archived Week 1 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis Indoor Final

Baltimore Ravens

0-0 · 9-8 last season

Final41

At BAL -3.5 Total 47.5 BAL covered · Over

Indianapolis Colts

0-0 · 7-10 last season

Final23

Line movement open Sep 6 IND spread +3.5 +3.5 no move Total 47.5 47.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Play · 6/10

Zay Flowers into IND's 31st-ranked pass defense is the game's cleanest smash.

SideBET AWAY -3.5BAL better team, IND 0-5 last five.

TotalBET OVER 47.5both secondaries soft, IND #31 and BAL #28 vs WR.

Best bet

Zay Flowers over 66.5 receiving yards against Indianapolis's 31st-ranked pass defense.

Quick hits

BAL -3.5, total 47.5, implied BAL 25.5 / IND 22.0.
Balanced-to-high: two soft secondaries, IND #31 and BAL #28 vs WR.
Zay Flowers vs IND #31 WR, 37.4 fpa, is the decisive edge.
BAL leads and stays run-heavy at 46% pass; IND chases through the air.
IND on a 5-game skid; a Colts pass rush wobble opens Lamar.

Key matchups

Zay Flowers vs IND #31 WR: 37.4 fpa, elite spot, SMASH.
Josh Downs vs BAL #28 WR: 36.5 fpa, elite spot, SMASH.
Lamar Jackson vs IND #20 QB: 18.6 fpa, favorable, proj 22.9.
Tyler Warren vs BAL #6 TE: 11.1 fpa, toughest spot, TOUGH.
Derrick Henry vs IND #13 RB: 20.9 fpa, neutral, proj 17.2.
Jonathan Taylor vs BAL #18 RB: 22.7 fpa, neutral, proj 19.8.

BAL skill positions vs IND defense

#27/32

20.7 fpa

Elite

#25/32

25.1 fpa

Elite

#31/32

38.1 fpa

Elite

#23/32

14.8 fpa

Good

IND skill positions vs BAL defense

#15/32

17.0 fpa

Average

#18/32

23.6 fpa

Average

#26/32

34.2 fpa

Elite

#5/32

10.9 fpa

Avoid

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

BAL 46% pass rate, #28 in plays; IND 56% pass, run to Taylor.
BAL leads and grinds; IND trails and throws to WRs into a soft BAL secondary.
Points via WR mismatches; implied 25.5 vs 22.0 keeps it moderate.

Projected points (market implied)

BAL25.5

IND22.0

Offense profile

BALRank of 32IND

25.0 #12 Pts / G 26.8 #8

199.8 #26 Pass yds / G 234.5 #15

154.5 #2 Rush yds / G 114.6 #18

58.1 #28 Plays / G 58.9 #25

45% Pass rate 57%

1.3 Pass TD / G 1.5

1.4 Rush TD / G 1.6

2.6 Sacks taken / G 1.8

0.6 INT thrown / G 0.9

Defense profile

BALRank of 32IND

22.4 #13 Pts allowed / G 26.2 #26

245.6 #24 Pass yds allowed 273.4 #32

106.3 #7 Rush yds allowed 109.2 #10

1.8 Sacks / G 2.2

0.7 INT / G 0.7

1.3 Pass TD allowed 1.4

1.0 Rush TD allowed 1.2

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-14, 21 games per team.

Weather

Indoor: no weather factor. Lucas Oil Stadium is a covered venue.

Indoor: no weather factor.

DFS

Stack Lamar Jackson with Zay Flowers into IND's #31 WR defense.
Value Mark Andrews $3900 (2.32x) vs IND #25 TE.
Fade Tyler Warren $4900 into BAL's #6 TE unit.
Contrarian: Josh Downs $5200 chase-script target vs BAL #28 WR.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Zay Flowers - receiving yards 66.5 - over - vs #31 WR, proj 16.1.
Josh Downs - receptions 4.5 (o+124) - over - chase script vs #28 WR.
Lamar Jackson - passing yards 219.5 - over - favorable #20 QB spot.
Tyler Warren - receiving yards 47.5 - under - BAL #6 vs TE.

All BAL and IND props with AI grades

Injuries

BAL 8 listed

Out Devontez Walker WR Groin Severe
Out Elijah Sarratt WR Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Joe Fagnano QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Skylar Thompson QB Unknown Severe
Out Chandler Rivers CB Unknown Minimal
Out Emery Jones Jr. G Unknown Minimal
Out Nnamdi Madubuike DE Unknown Minimal
Out Teddye Buchanan ILB Unknown Minimal

IND 8 listed

Out DJ Giddens RB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Riley Leonard QB Coach'S Decision Severe
IR Carson Towt TE Unknown Severe
Out Austin Ajiake LB Hamstring Minimal
Out Dalton Tucker G Unknown Minimal
Out George Gumbs Jr. DE Unknown Minimal
Out Johnathan Edwards CB Unknown Minimal
Quest. Alec Pierce WR Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

BAL 2-3 last 5; IND 0-5 last 5, decisive edge in form.
H2H: IND won last two meetings, 22-19 and 25-31 splits.
Line static: spread 3.5 and total 47.5 unchanged since open.

BAL last 5

W 41-23 @ INDL 24-26 @ PITW 41-24 @ GBL 24-28 vs NEW 24-0 @ CIN

IND last 5

L 23-41 vs BALL 30-38 @ HOUL 17-23 vs JAXL 27-48 vs SFL 16-18 @ SEA

Head-to-head

Sep 13, 2026 BAL 41 at IND 23
Sep 24, 2023 IND 22 at BAL 19
Oct 11, 2021 IND 25 at BAL 31

Watch list

Alec Pierce (heel, Q): active status shifts IND WR target share.
Devontez Walker (groin, Q): depth WR, minor BAL impact.
Line at 3.5: any move off the key number changes side value.
Nnamdi Madubuike (neck, Q): affects BAL pass rush on Jones.

Week 1 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

NE @ SEA