Archived Week 1 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Nissan Stadium, Tennessee
Final
New York Jets
0-0 · 4-13 last season
Final23
At
TEN -1.5 Total 38.5 NYJ covered · Under
Tennessee Titans
0-0 · 3-14 last season
Final10
Line movement open Sep 6
TEN spread
-2.5 -1.5
1.0
Total
39.5 38.5
1.0
The angle, before kickoff
Lean · 4/10
TEN -1.5 but implied margin is exactly 1.5, this is a coinflip between two bottom-5 offenses.
SideBET AWAY +1.5line moved a full point toward Jets, take the points at pick-em.
TotalPASSprojected total 38.5 matches the line exactly, no edge.
Best bet
Garrett Wilson over 63.5 receiving yards against the #27 WR defense allowing 36.3 fantasy points.
Quick hits
- Market: TEN -1.5, total 38.5, implied TEN 20.0 / NYJ 18.5.
- Low scoring: both offenses rank #29-30 in points, both under 200 pass yards.
- Decisive spot: both QBs face #28 and #30 pass defenses, soft on soft.
- Script balanced: no clear leader, TEN passes 60%, NYJ leans run at 53%.
- Swing factor: NYJ CB Tre Brown out, D'Angelo Ponds questionable, thins secondary.
Key matchups
- Tony Pollard vs NYJ RB defense: #32 of 32, 30.4 fpa, softest run spot on board.
- Garrett Wilson vs TEN WR defense: #27, 36.3 fpa, SMASH matchup outside.
- Cam Ward vs NYJ QB defense: #30, 20.7 fpa, elite streaming value at $5100.
- Geno Smith vs TEN QB defense: #28, 20.4 fpa, SMASH at $4600.
- Gunnar Helm vs NYJ TE defense: #26, 15.5 fpa, SMASH for the cheap tight end.
- Breece Hall vs TEN RB defense: #12, 20.7 fpa, toughest skill spot, neutral.
NYJ skill positions vs TEN defenseQB
#22/32
18.2 fpa
RB
#12/32
21.9 fpa
WR
#27/32
34.7 fpa
TE
#24/32
14.9 fpa
TEN skill positions vs NYJ defenseQB
#24/32
18.9 fpa
RB
#28/32
26.1 fpa
WR
#15/32
30.1 fpa
TE
#20/32
14.1 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- Both teams slow at 59 plays; TEN pass rate 60%, NYJ 53% run-tilted.
- No favorite emerges: 1.5-point spread means script stays neutral into the fourth.
- Points scarce: implied totals 20.0 and 18.5, both offenses under 1.0 pass TD per game.
Projected points (market implied)
NYJ18.5
TEN20.0
Offense profile
NYJRank of 32TEN
17.1
#29
Pts / G
16.6
#30
163.6
#32
Pass yds / G
192.4
#27
121.5
#12
Rush yds / G
93.3
#30
59.5
#23
Plays / G
58.7
#26
52%
Pass rate
61%
0.8
Pass TD / G
0.9
0.6
Rush TD / G
0.5
3.5
Sacks taken / G
3.1
0.8
INT thrown / G
0.5
Defense profile
NYJRank of 32TEN
28.2
#28
Pts allowed / G
28.3
#29
220.3
#14
Pass yds allowed
250.6
#26
140.4
#30
Rush yds allowed
114.6
#13
1.5
Sacks / G
2.4
0.0
INT / G
0.2
1.9
Pass TD allowed
1.7
1.2
Rush TD allowed
1.3
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-14, 21 games per team.
Weather
At kickoff · 2026-09-13 12:00 local
Low impact
Conditions
Overcast
Temp
72°F
feels 65°
Wind
12 mph NNE
gusts 12 mph
Rain
9%
0.00 in
Humidity
40%
- Wind 11 mph: minor, mostly on long kicks
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
- F, wind 10 mph NNE gusting 12, rain 5%, minor impact only on long kicks.
- No meaningful drag on passing or totals, weather is a non-factor for DFS.
DFS
- Stack: Cam Ward + Gunnar Helm, both SMASH spots at $5100 and $3200.
- Value: Helm $3200 at 1.98x into #26 TE defense, cheapest points on slate.
- Fade: Adonai Mitchell $4000 at 1.53x, buried behind Wilson.
- Contrarian: Geno Smith $4600 at 3.52x, low-owned QB into #28 defense.
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Tony Pollard - rushing yards 50.5 - lean over - #32 RB defense, softest matchup.
- Garrett Wilson - receiving yards 63.5 - lean over - #27 WR defense, 36.3 fpa.
- Cam Ward - passing yards 202.5 - lean over - #30 QB defense, elite spot.
- Gunnar Helm - receiving yards 22.5 - lean over - #26 TE defense, SMASH.
Injuries
NYJ 8 listed- Out Kene Nwangwu RB Unknown Severe
- Out Blake Grupe K Unknown Moderate
- Out D'Angelo Ponds CB Calf Minimal
- Out Joseph Ossai OLB Unknown Minimal
- Out Tre Brown CB Undisclosed Minimal
- Out Trevin Wallace ILB Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Minkah Fitzpatrick FS Groin Minimal
- Quest. Omar Cooper Jr. WR Unknown Minimal
TEN 8 listed- Out Jaren Kanak TE Unknown Severe
- Out Nicholas Singleton RB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Atonio Mafi G Unknown Minimal
- Out Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson OT Unknown Minimal
- Out Cedric Gray LB Unknown Minimal
- Out Jackie Marshall DT Unknown Minimal
- Out Jaylen Harrell DE Unknown Minimal
- Out Owen Pappoe ILB Unknown Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- Form: NYJ lost last 5 by 20-plus twice, TEN went 2-3 with a win over KC.
- H2H: NYJ won last meeting 24-17 in 2024, split the two shown.
- Line move: spread TEN -2.5 to -1.5, total 39.5 to 38.5, money on Jets.
NYJ last 5W 23-10 @ TENL 8-35 @ BUFL 10-42 vs NEL 6-29 @ NOL 20-48 @ JAX
TEN last 5L 10-23 vs NYJL 7-41 @ JAXL 26-34 vs NOW 26-9 vs KCL 24-37 @ SF
Head-to-head
- Sep 13, 2026 NYJ 23 at TEN 10
- Sep 15, 2024 NYJ 24 at TEN 17
- Oct 3, 2021 TEN 24 at NYJ 27
Watch list
- D'Angelo Ponds and Tre Brown status, thin NYJ secondary boosts Titans passing.
- Andre James (C) questionable, affects TEN protection and Pollard run lanes.
- Late line move: spread already at -1.5, watch for a flip to Jets favorite.
Week 1 slate
Swipe for all 16 games this week.
NE @ SEA
Wed 8:20 PM ET
SEA -3.5
O/U 44.5
Final
SF @ LA
Thu 8:35 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 47.5
Final
ATL @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT -5.5
O/U 40.5
Final
BAL @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -3.5
O/U 47.5
Final
BUF @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -1.5
O/U 44.5
Final
CHI @ CAR
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -3
O/U 47.5
Final
CLE @ JAX
Sun 1:00 PM ET
JAX -8.5
O/U 40.5
Final
NO @ DET
Sun 1:00 PM ET
DET -6.5
O/U 49.5
Final
NYJ @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TEN -1.5
O/U 38.5
Final
TB @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -3.5
O/U 50.5
Final
ARI @ LAC
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LAC -9.5
O/U 47.5
Final
GB @ MIN
Sun 4:25 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 46.5
Final
MIA @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LV -3
O/U 39.5
Final
WAS @ PHI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
PHI -5.5
O/U 44.5
Final
DAL @ NYG
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DAL -3
O/U 47.5
Final
DEN @ KC
Mon 8:15 PM ET
KC -2.5
O/U 42.5
Kicked off