Archived Week 1 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · NRG Stadium, Houston Indoor Final

Buffalo Bills

0-0 · 13-6 last season

Final36

At BUF -1.5 Total 44.5 BUF covered · Over

Houston Texans

0-0 · 13-6 last season

Final31

Line movement open Sep 6 HOU spread +1.5 +1.5 no move Total 44.5 44.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 5/10

Two elite defenses collide: total sits 44.5 with both units top-10 in points allowed.

SidePASSspread 1.5 is a coinflip with no line move and HOU 2-0 in recent head-to-head.

TotalBET UNDER 44.5both defenses top-10 in points allowed, HOU #2 at 17.5.

Best bet

David Montgomery over 55.5 rushing yards against Buffalo's #23 run defense (24.4 fpa).

Quick hits

BUF -1.5, total 44.5, implied BUF 23.0 and HOU 21.5, no line move.
Low-scoring lean: HOU allows 17.5 pts (#2), BUF allows 21.2 (#10).
Decisive spot: Montgomery vs BUF #23 run defense, the only soft matchup on the board.
Script: BUF slight favorite, run-first (#1 rush, 48% pass); HOU pass-leans (56%).
Changer: Ty Johnson questionable (hamstring) thins Buffalo's backfield depth.

Key matchups

David Montgomery vs BUF: #23 vs RB, 24.4 fpa, FAVORABLE, lone exploitable edge.
Dalton Schultz vs BUF: #1 vs TE, 8.0 fpa, TOUGH, hardest spot on the slate.
Nico Collins vs BUF: #5 vs WR, 25.9 fpa, TOUGH, but 30.1 ceiling on volume.
James Cook vs HOU: #7 vs RB, 20.0 fpa, TOUGH, run lanes clogged by #3 run D.
DJ Moore vs HOU: #7 vs WR, 26.5 fpa, TOUGH, capped 10.6 projection.
C.J. Stroud vs BUF: #5 vs QB, 14.0 fpa, TOUGH, projected just 16.5.

BUF skill positions vs HOU defense

#26/32

19.3 fpa

Elite

#4/32

18.1 fpa

Avoid

#16/32

30.2 fpa

Average

#26/32

15.4 fpa

Elite

HOU skill positions vs BUF defense

#5/32

14.9 fpa

Avoid

#29/32

26.3 fpa

Elite

#8/32

28.7 fpa

Avoid

#3/32

9.3 fpa

Avoid

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

HOU plays fast (65 plays, #3) and throws 56%; BUF grinds at 48% pass behind #1 rush.
Favorite BUF leads narrow, leans run; HOU chases with Stroud volume if trailing.
Points scarce: implied 23.0 and 21.5, both defenses top-10 in points allowed.

Projected points (market implied)

BUF23.0

HOU21.5

Offense profile

BUFRank of 32HOU

28.1 #4 Pts / G 24.8 #13

235.7 #14 Pass yds / G 237.1 #13

155.5 #1 Rush yds / G 109.2 #22

62.9 #13 Plays / G 65.4 #3

48% Pass rate 56%

1.7 Pass TD / G 1.5

1.6 Rush TD / G 0.6

2.4 Sacks taken / G 1.9

0.6 INT thrown / G 0.7

Defense profile

BUFRank of 32HOU

21.7 #10 Pts allowed / G 18.5 #3

181.4 #1 Pass yds allowed 205.6 #8

127.6 #25 Rush yds allowed 93.4 #3

2.0 Sacks / G 2.9

0.8 INT / G 1.1

1.3 Pass TD allowed 1.3

1.2 Rush TD allowed 0.7

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-14, 21 games per team.

Weather

Indoor: no weather factor. NRG Stadium is a covered venue.

Indoor: no weather factor.

DFS

Stack: Allen plus Kincaid, HOU only #18 vs TE, cheapest correlated BUF piece.
Value: Schultz $3400 (2.80x) but #1 TE matchup caps him; Montgomery $6000 (2.14x) safer.
Fade: DJ Moore $5600 into #7 WR defense, 10.6 projection, thin ceiling.
Contrarian: Collins 30.1 ceiling despite tough rank, low-owned in a low total.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

David Montgomery - rushing yards 55.5 - OVER - #23 run defense, only favorable spot.
Nico Collins - receiving yards 69.5 - OVER - 15.2 proj, target hog with Higgins and Dell out.
C.J. Stroud - passing yards 219.5 - UNDER - #5 QB defense, projected 16.5 points.
Josh Allen - rushing yards 33.5 - OVER - 33.5 line, rushing floor in low-pass script.

All BUF and HOU props with AI grades

Injuries

BUF 8 listed

Out Skyler Bell WR Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Ty Johnson RB Hamstring Severe
Out Tyrell Shavers WR Unknown Severe
Out Ar'maj Reed-Adams G Unknown Minimal
Out Jalon Kilgore FS Unknown Minimal
Out Jude Bowry OT Unknown Minimal
Out Michael Danna OLB Unknown Minimal
Out T.J. Sanders DE Knee Minimal

HOU 8 listed

Out Brevin Jordan TE Unknown Severe
Out Graham Mertz QB Unknown Severe
Out Aiden Fisher LB Unknown Minimal
Out Collin Wright CB Unknown Minimal
Out E.J. Speed LB Quadriceps Minimal
Out Febechi Nwaiwu G Unknown Minimal
Out Jaden Crumedy DE Unknown Minimal
Out Solomon Byrd DE Ankle Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

HOU 4-1 last 5 including 30-6 rout at PIT; BUF 3-2 with two one-score losses.
Head-to-head: HOU won last two, 23-19 and 23-20, both at NRG.
Line flat since open: spread 1.5 and total 44.5 unchanged, no market signal.

BUF last 5

W 36-31 @ HOUL 30-33 @ DENW 27-24 @ JAXW 35-8 vs NYJL 12-13 vs PHI

HOU last 5

L 31-36 vs BUFL 16-28 @ NEW 30-6 @ PITW 38-30 vs INDW 20-16 @ LAC

Head-to-head

Sep 13, 2026 BUF 36 at HOU 31
Nov 20, 2025 BUF 19 at HOU 23
Oct 6, 2024 BUF 20 at HOU 23

Watch list

Ty Johnson (hamstring) status: an out boosts Cook's volume against a tough front.
Jedrick Wills (OT) questionable: absence pressures Allen versus HOU's 2.9 sacks.
Kayden McDonald (DT) questionable: an out softens Buffalo's run edge slightly.

Week 1 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

NE @ SEA