Buffalo Bills
20260-0 202512-6
@
Houston Texans
20260-0 202513-5
BUF @ HOU breakdown unlocks Fri Sep 11, 1:00 PM ET
The AI read lands 48 hours before kickoff. The market, key matchups, injuries and weather below are live now.
SpreadBUF -1.5
Total44.5
BUF implied23.0
HOU implied21.5
BUF ML-120
HOU ML+102
Line movement open Sep 6
HOU spread
+1.5 +1.5
no move
Total
44.5 44.5
no move
FanDuel
Key matchups
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF |
Josh Allen | QB | 22.7 | $7,000 | HOU #7 of 32 | 14.5 | Tough |
| BUF |
James Cook III | RB | 16.6 | $7,200 | HOU #6 of 32 | 20.0 | Tough |
| BUF |
DJ Moore | WR | 9.9 | $5,600 | HOU #7 of 32 | 26.5 | Tough |
| BUF |
Dalton Kincaid | TE | 7.8 | $4,600 | HOU #17 of 32 | 13.5 | Neutral |
| HOU |
Nico Collins | WR | 17.3 | $7,000 | BUF #5 of 32 | 25.9 | Tough |
| HOU |
C.J. Stroud | QB | 15.9 | $5,200 | BUF #5 of 32 | 14.0 | Tough |
| HOU |
David Montgomery | RB | 12.3 | $6,000 | BUF #23 of 32 | 24.4 | Favorable |
| HOU |
Dalton Schultz | TE | 9.8 | $3,400 | BUF #1 of 32 | 8.0 | Tough |
BUF skill positions vs HOU defenseQB
#7/32
14.5 fpa
RB
#6/32
20.0 fpa
WR
#7/32
26.5 fpa
TE
#17/32
13.5 fpa
HOU skill positions vs BUF defenseQB
#5/32
14.0 fpa
RB
#23/32
24.4 fpa
WR
#5/32
25.9 fpa
TE
#1/32
8.0 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
Projected points (market implied)
BUF23.0
HOU21.5
Offense profile
BUFRank of 32HOU
27.6
#6
Pts / G
24.5
#12
230.2
#17
Pass yds / G
235.0
#13
159.3
#1
Rush yds / G
108.3
#22
63.6
#9
Plays / G
64.9
#4
48%
Pass rate
56%
1.7
Pass TD / G
1.4
1.6
Rush TD / G
0.6
2.4
Sacks taken / G
1.9
0.7
INT thrown / G
0.7
Defense profile
BUFRank of 32HOU
21.2
#10
Pts allowed / G
17.5
#2
176.2
#2
Pass yds allowed
198.5
#7
127.8
#25
Rush yds allowed
93.8
#3
1.9
Sacks / G
2.9
0.9
INT / G
1.2
1.3
Pass TD allowed
1.2
1.2
Rush TD allowed
0.7
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-09, 20 games per team.
Weather
Indoor: no weather factor. NRG Stadium is a covered venue.
DFS
BUF projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Josh Allen | 22.7 | 13.3 / 31.9 | $7,000 | 3.25x | $8,900 | #7 |
| RB | James Cook III | 16.6 | 8.8 / 27.8 | $7,200 | 2.30x | $7,800 | #6 |
| WR | DJ Moore | 9.9 | 3.6 / 21.7 | $5,600 | 1.77x | $6,500 | #7 |
| WR | Khalil Shakir | 9.7 | 4.1 / 22.9 | $4,800 | 2.01x | $5,900 | #7 |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | 7.8 | 2.5 / 20.5 | $4,600 | 1.71x | $5,200 | #17 |
| WR | Keon Coleman | 4.8 | 0.0 / 12.1 | $4,000 | 1.20x | $4,900 | #7 |
| RB | Ty Johnson | 4.2 | 0.0 / 12.3 | $4,200 | 0.99x | $5,000 | #6 |
HOU projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | Nico Collins | 17.3 | 7.3 / 32.9 | $7,000 | 2.47x | $7,700 | #5 |
| QB | C.J. Stroud | 15.9 | 9.5 / 24.9 | $5,200 | 3.05x | $6,800 | #5 |
| RB | David Montgomery | 12.3 | 7.0 / 24.8 | $6,000 | 2.05x | $6,300 | #23 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz | 9.8 | 3.7 / 20.7 | $3,400 | 2.89x | $5,100 | #1 |
| WR | Kayshon Boutte | 6.4 | 0.0 / 18.3 | $4,500 | 1.43x | $5,000 | #5 |
| RB | Woody Marks | 6.4 | 2.5 / 14.9 | $5,000 | 1.28x | $6,200 | #23 |
| WR | Jaylin Noel | 5.5 | 0.0 / 16.6 | $3,600 | 1.54x | $5,000 | #5 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Over | Book | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen QB BUF | Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.4 | +160 | BetRivers | #5 |
| Josh Allen QB BUF | Pass yds | 223.5 | 203.2 | -112 | DraftKings | #7 |
| Josh Allen QB BUF | Rush yds | 32.5 | 32.8 | -114 | BetOnline | #3 |
| Nico Collins WR HOU | Receptions | 5.5 | 5.4 | +110 | BetOnline | #2 |
| Nico Collins WR HOU | Rec yds | 69.5 | 82.9 | -113 | DraftKings | #2 |
| James Cook III RB BUF | Rush yds | 74.5 | 99.0 | -113 | DraftKings | #3 |
| James Cook III RB BUF | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.1 | +130 | BetMGM | #7 |
| James Cook III RB BUF | Rec yds | 14.5 | 17.8 | -111 | BetMGM | #7 |
| C.J. Stroud QB HOU | Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.5 | +133 | BetRivers | #8 |
| C.J. Stroud QB HOU | Pass yds | 219.5 | 248.7 | -112 | DraftKings | #2 |
| C.J. Stroud QB HOU | Rush yds | 9.5 | 14.8 | -112 | BetRivers | #24 |
| David Montgomery RB HOU | Rush yds | 54.5 | 57.0 | -110 | DraftKings | #24 |
| David Montgomery RB HOU | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.9 | -105 | BetMGM | #2 |
| David Montgomery RB HOU | Rec yds | 8.5 | 15.3 | -114 | FanDuel | #2 |
Best available over price per line. Opp rank = the defense's rank in that stat allowed (32 allows the most).
All BUF and HOU props with AI gradesInjuries
BUF 8 listed- IR Tyrell Shavers WR Knee Severe
- Quest. Ty Johnson RB Lower Leg Moderate
- Quest. Jedrick Wills OT Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Jude Bowry OT Foot Minimal
- Quest. Keon Coleman WR Right Foot/Toe Minimal
- Quest. Khalil Shakir WR Undisclosed Minimal
- Quest. Mike Hoecht OLB Achilles Minimal
- IR Zane Durant DT Undisclosed Minimal
HOU 8 listed- Out Graham Mertz QB Unknown Severe
- Out E.J. Speed LB Quadriceps Minimal
- Out Solomon Byrd DE Ankle Minimal
- Quest. Brevin Jordan TE Knee Minimal
- Quest. British Brooks FB Hand Minimal
- Quest. Dominique Robinson DE Calf Minimal
- Quest. Jadeveon Clowney DE Hip/Ankle Minimal
- Quest. Jaylin Noel WR Hamstring/Finger Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
BUF last 5L 30-33 @ DENW 27-24 @ JAXW 35-8 vs NYJL 12-13 vs PHIW 23-20 @ CLE
HOU last 5L 16-28 @ NEW 30-6 @ PITW 38-30 vs INDW 20-16 @ LACW 23-21 vs LV
Head-to-head
- Nov 20, 2025 BUF 19 at HOU 23
- Oct 6, 2024 BUF 20 at HOU 23
- Oct 3, 2021 HOU 0 at BUF 40
Week 1 slate
Swipe for all 16 games this week.
NE @ SEA
Wed 8:20 PM ET
SEA -3.5
O/U 44.5
Ready
SF @ LA
Thu 8:35 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 48.5
Ready
ATL @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT -3.5
O/U 41.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
BAL @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -3.5
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
BUF @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -1.5
O/U 44.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
CHI @ CAR
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -3
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
CLE @ JAX
Sun 1:00 PM ET
JAX -8.5
O/U 40.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
NO @ DET
Sun 1:00 PM ET
DET -6.5
O/U 49.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
NYJ @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TEN -1.5
O/U 39.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
TB @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -3.5
O/U 50.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
ARI @ LAC
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LAC -9.5
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
GB @ MIN
Sun 4:25 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 46.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
MIA @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LV -3.5
O/U 40.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
WAS @ PHI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
PHI -5.5
O/U 44.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
DAL @ NYG
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DAL -2.5
O/U 48.5
Unlocks Fri 8:20 PM
DEN @ KC
Mon 8:15 PM ET
KC -2.5
O/U 43.5
Unlocks Sat 8:15 PM