Archived Week 1 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville Final

Cleveland Browns

0-0 · 5-12 last season

Final10

At JAX -8.5 Total 40.5 JAX covered · Over

Jacksonville Jaguars

0-0 · 13-5 last season

Final34

Line movement open Sep 6 JAX spread -7.5 -8.5 1.0 Total 40.5 40.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Play · 6/10

JAX -8.5 with a 24.5 implied total against the NFL's 31st-ranked Browns offense.

SideBET HOME -8.5line moved to JAX, CLE offense ranks 31st in points.

TotalBET UNDER 40.5CLE 16.0 implied and JAX pass defense both cap scoring.

Best bet

JAX -8.5 at home, the Browns' 31st-ranked offense cannot keep pace with a 24.5 implied total.

Quick hits

Market JAX -8.5, total 40.5, implied CLE 16.0 / JAX 24.5.
Low-scoring lean: CLE offense ranks 31st in points and passing.
CLE pass defense ranks 4th vs WR, choking Lawrence's outside weapons.
JAX leads and controls tempo; CLE forced to pass down big.
Meyers thumb and Watson's 12.0 projection swing the CLE ceiling.

Key matchups

Bhayshul Tuten vs CLE RB defense: 23.8 fpa, #21, FAVORABLE for the run game.
Harold Fannin vs JAX TE defense: 13.9 fpa, #20, FAVORABLE soft spot.
Quinshon Judkins vs JAX RB defense: 18.3 fpa, #2, TOUGH, avoid the run.
Parker Washington vs CLE WR defense: 25.5 fpa, #4, TOUGH shutdown coverage.
Trevor Lawrence vs CLE QB defense: 13.8 fpa, #3, TOUGH, capped upside.
KC Concepcion vs JAX WR defense: 31.0 fpa, #17, NEUTRAL despite volume allowed.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
JAX	Trevor Lawrence	QB	19.3	$5,800	CLE #11 of 32	16.2	Neutral
JAX	Bhayshul Tuten	RB	10.8	$5,800	CLE #14 of 32	22.3	Neutral
JAX	Parker Washington	WR	10.0	$5,600	CLE #14 of 32	30.1	Neutral
JAX	Brenton Strange	TE	7.4	$3,600	CLE #15 of 32	12.9	Neutral

CLE skill positions vs JAX defense

#12/32

16.3 fpa

Bad

#2/32

17.1 fpa

Avoid

#17/32

30.2 fpa

Average

#12/32

12.4 fpa

Bad

JAX skill positions vs CLE defense

#11/32

16.2 fpa

Bad

#14/32

22.3 fpa

Bad

#14/32

30.1 fpa

Bad

#15/32

12.9 fpa

Average

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

JAX runs 64 plays (#7) at 54% pass; CLE 60 plays (#22), 56% pass.
Favorite JAX leads early, leans run into CLE's #21 RB defense; CLE forced to throw.
Points skew JAX: 24.5 implied on 1.8 pass and 1.2 rush TD per game.

Projected points (market implied)

CLE16.0

JAX24.5

Offense profile

CLERank of 32JAX

16.1 #31 Pts / G 28.1 #5

180.4 #31 Pass yds / G 239.1 #12

99.2 #27 Rush yds / G 113.1 #20

59.3 #24 Plays / G 63.3 #10

56% Pass rate 53%

0.9 Pass TD / G 1.9

0.5 Rush TD / G 1.2

3.2 Sacks taken / G 2.4

1.0 INT thrown / G 0.7

Defense profile

CLERank of 32JAX

23.3 #16 Pts allowed / G 20.2 #9

197.4 #4 Pass yds allowed 236.6 #20

121.1 #18 Rush yds allowed 83.8 #1

3.0 Sacks / G 2.1

0.6 INT / G 1.2

1.6 Pass TD allowed 1.4

0.8 Rush TD allowed 0.8

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-14, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-13 13:00 local Low impact

Conditions

Partly Cloudy

Temp

95°F

feels 101°

Wind

5 mph W

gusts 6 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

44%

94F: heat, rotation depth matters late

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

F, feels 100F, wind 4 mph, rain 1%: no passing or kicking impact.
Heat only taxes rotation depth late, DraftEdge impact low.

DFS

JAX projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Trevor Lawrence	19.3	13.3 / 27.6	$5,800	3.33x	$7,700	#11
RB	Bhayshul Tuten	10.8	6.9 / 18.5	$5,800	1.87x	$6,700	#14
WR	Parker Washington	10.0	4.7 / 16.8	$5,600	1.78x	$6,600	#14
WR	Jakobi Meyers	9.0	6.0 / 14.4	$5,000	1.80x	$5,800	#14
WR	Brian Thomas Jr. questionable	8.9	5.4 / 15.8	$5,500	1.61x	$6,100	#14
TE	Brenton Strange	7.4	4.4 / 15.2	$3,600	2.04x	$5,100	#15
RB	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	5.7	3.6 / 12.4	$5,100	1.11x	$5,300	#14

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Bhayshul Tuten - rushing yards 48.5 - OVER - #21 CLE run defense, 23.8 fpa.
Brenton Strange - receptions 3.5 - OVER - #16 TE matchup, 9.7 projection.
Trevor Lawrence - passing yards 232.5 - UNDER - CLE #3 QB defense, 194 pass yds allowed.
Quinshon Judkins - rushing yards 57.5 - UNDER - JAX #2 run defense, 84 rush yds allowed.

All CLE and JAX props with AI grades

Injuries

CLE 8 listed

Out Joe Royer TE Personal Severe
Out Taylen Green QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Damarri Mathis CB Unknown Minimal
Out Daniel Thomas FS Unknown Minimal
Out Edefuan Ulofoshio LB Biceps Minimal
Out Elijah Chatman DT Quadriceps Minimal
Out Justin Jefferson LB Unknown Minimal
Out Kendrick Green G Unknown Minimal

JAX 8 listed

Out Quinn Ewers QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Tanner Koziol TE Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Bryan Thomas DE Unknown Minimal
Out Jalen Huskey FS Unknown Minimal
Out Jared Bartlett ILB Unknown Minimal
Out Parker Hughes LB Unknown Minimal
Out Wesley Williams DE Unknown Minimal
Quest. B.J. Green II DE Elbow Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

JAX won 4 of last 5, including 41-7 and 48-20 blowouts.
CLE won last H2H 18-13 at JAX in 2024.
Spread moved JAX -7.5 to -8.5, sharp side on the favorite.

CLE last 5

L 10-34 @ JAXW 20-18 @ CINW 13-6 vs PITL 20-23 vs BUFL 3-31 @ CHI

JAX last 5

W 34-10 vs CLEL 24-27 vs BUFW 41-7 vs TENW 23-17 @ INDW 34-20 @ DEN

Head-to-head

Sep 13, 2026 CLE 10 at JAX 34
Sep 15, 2024 CLE 18 at JAX 13
Dec 10, 2023 JAX 27 at CLE 31

Watch list

Jakobi Meyers thumb questionable: his removal shifts targets to Washington and Thomas.
Maliek Collins and Parker Brailsford questionable: CLE trench depth affects run defense.
Spread past -8.5: further move confirms sharp JAX money.

Week 1 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

NE @ SEA