Cleveland Browns
20260-0 20255-11
@
Jacksonville Jaguars
20260-0 202512-5
CLE @ JAX breakdown unlocks Fri Sep 11, 1:00 PM ET
The AI read lands 48 hours before kickoff. The market, key matchups, injuries and weather below are live now.
SpreadJAX -8.5
Total40.5
CLE implied16.0
JAX implied24.5
CLE ML+350
JAX ML-450
Line movement open Sep 6
JAX spread
-7.5 -8.5
1.0
Total
40.5 40.5
no move
FanDuel
Key matchups
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE |
Deshaun Watson | QB | 13.8 | $4,700 | JAX #14 of 32 | 16.6 | Neutral |
| CLE |
Quinshon Judkins | RB | 12.7 | $5,500 | JAX #2 of 32 | 18.3 | Tough |
| CLE |
Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 10.7 | $4,200 | JAX #20 of 32 | 13.9 | Favorable |
| CLE |
KC Concepcion | WR | 9.1 | $4,600 | JAX #16 of 32 | 31.0 | Neutral |
| JAX |
Trevor Lawrence | QB | 18.7 | $5,800 | CLE #3 of 32 | 13.8 | Tough |
| JAX |
Parker Washington | WR | 13.3 | $5,600 | CLE #3 of 32 | 25.5 | Tough |
| JAX |
Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 11.9 | $5,800 | CLE #21 of 32 | 23.8 | Favorable |
| JAX |
Brenton Strange | TE | 8.5 | $3,600 | CLE #15 of 32 | 13.1 | Neutral |
CLE skill positions vs JAX defenseQB
#14/32
16.6 fpa
RB
#2/32
18.3 fpa
WR
#16/32
31.0 fpa
TE
#20/32
13.9 fpa
JAX skill positions vs CLE defenseQB
#3/32
13.8 fpa
RB
#21/32
23.8 fpa
WR
#3/32
25.5 fpa
TE
#15/32
13.1 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
Projected points (market implied)
CLE16.0
JAX24.5
Offense profile
CLERank of 32JAX
16.4
#31
Pts / G
27.8
#5
178.9
#31
Pass yds / G
238.7
#11
100.0
#27
Rush yds / G
112.4
#20
59.9
#22
Plays / G
63.8
#7
56%
Pass rate
54%
0.9
Pass TD / G
1.8
0.6
Rush TD / G
1.2
3.1
Sacks taken / G
2.5
1.0
INT thrown / G
0.8
Defense profile
CLERank of 32JAX
22.6
#14
Pts allowed / G
20.8
#9
194.4
#4
Pass yds allowed
238.4
#20
120.8
#20
Rush yds allowed
83.6
#1
3.1
Sacks / G
1.9
0.7
INT / G
1.2
1.5
Pass TD allowed
1.5
0.8
Rush TD allowed
0.9
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-09, 20 games per team.
Weather
Forecast lands 2 days before kickoff (EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville)
DFS
CLE projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Deshaun Watson | 13.8 | 7.7 / 21.7 | $4,700 | 2.93x | $6,500 | #14 |
| RB | Quinshon Judkins | 12.7 | 6.4 / 21.1 | $5,500 | 2.31x | $6,400 | #2 |
| TE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 10.7 | 4.6 / 21.8 | $4,200 | 2.54x | $5,700 | #20 |
| WR | KC Concepcion | 9.1 | 3.1 / 19.3 | $4,600 | 1.97x | $5,100 | #16 |
| WR | Jerry Jeudy | 7.1 | 1.6 / 16.7 | $4,100 | 1.74x | $5,700 | #16 |
| WR | Denzel Boston | 6.3 | 1.6 / 16.1 | $4,400 | 1.44x | $4,800 | #16 |
| RB | Dylan Sampson | 5.2 | 1.9 / 15.5 | $4,700 | 1.11x | $5,100 | #2 |
JAX projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Trevor Lawrence | 18.7 | 12.1 / 29.2 | $5,800 | 3.23x | $7,700 | #3 |
| WR | Parker Washington | 13.3 | 4.7 / 25.0 | $5,600 | 2.37x | $6,600 | #3 |
| RB | Bhayshul Tuten | 11.9 | 5.9 / 22.3 | $5,800 | 2.06x | $6,700 | #21 |
| WR | Jakobi Meyers | 11.1 | 4.3 / 23.5 | $5,000 | 2.23x | $5,800 | #3 |
| WR | Brian Thomas Jr. | 10.2 | 3.1 / 21.6 | $5,500 | 1.86x | $6,100 | #3 |
| TE | Brenton Strange | 8.5 | 3.7 / 22.3 | $3,600 | 2.36x | $5,100 | #15 |
| RB | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 7.0 | 2.0 / 14.7 | $5,100 | 1.37x | $5,300 | #21 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Over | Book | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence QB JAX | Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.6 | -106 | FanDuel | #15 |
| Trevor Lawrence QB JAX | Pass yds | 235.5 | 204.9 | -110 | Fanatics | #4 |
| Trevor Lawrence QB JAX | Rush yds | 17.5 | 18.9 | -112 | BetRivers | #20 |
| Deshaun Watson QB CLE | Pass TD | 0.5 | – | -165 | BetMGM | #15 |
| Deshaun Watson QB CLE | Pass yds | 177.5 | – | -113 | DraftKings | #20 |
| Deshaun Watson QB CLE | Rush yds | 19.5 | – | -111 | BetMGM | #1 |
| Parker Washington WR JAX | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | +125 | DraftKings | #4 |
| Parker Washington WR JAX | Rec yds | 53.5 | 58.6 | -114 | DraftKings | #4 |
| Quinshon Judkins RB CLE | Rush yds | 60.5 | 53.8 | -112 | DraftKings | #1 |
| Quinshon Judkins RB CLE | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.7 | -130 | FanDuel | #20 |
| Quinshon Judkins RB CLE | Rec yds | 10.5 | 11.1 | +105 | Fanatics | #20 |
| Bhayshul Tuten RB JAX | Rush yds | 49.5 | 48.5 | -114 | DraftKings | #20 |
| Bhayshul Tuten RB JAX | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.4 | -137 | BetRivers | #4 |
| Bhayshul Tuten RB JAX | Rec yds | 11.5 | 10.7 | -111 | DraftKings | #4 |
Best available over price per line. Opp rank = the defense's rank in that stat allowed (32 allows the most).
All CLE and JAX props with AI gradesInjuries
CLE 8 listed- Out Jamari Thrash WR Unknown Severe
- Out Joe Royer TE Personal Severe
- Out Damarri Mathis CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Edefuan Ulofoshio LB Biceps Minimal
- Out Elijah Chatman DT Quadriceps Minimal
- Out Kendrick Green G Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Isaiah Bond WR Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Parker Brailsford C Unknown Minimal
JAX 8 listed- IR Carter Bradley QB Thumb Severe
- IR Jimmy Holiday WR Undisclosed Severe
- Quest. Bhayshul Tuten RB Illness Moderate
- Quest. LeQuint Allen RB Undisclosed Moderate
- Out Jared Bartlett ILB Unknown Minimal
- Out Parker Hughes LB Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Jakobi Meyers WR Hand Minimal
- Quest. Wyatt Milum G Unknown Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
CLE last 5W 20-18 @ CINW 13-6 vs PITL 20-23 vs BUFL 3-31 @ CHIL 29-31 vs TEN
JAX last 5L 24-27 vs BUFW 41-7 vs TENW 23-17 @ INDW 34-20 @ DENW 48-20 vs NYJ
Head-to-head
- Sep 15, 2024 CLE 18 at JAX 13
- Dec 10, 2023 JAX 27 at CLE 31
Week 1 slate
Swipe for all 16 games this week.
NE @ SEA
Wed 8:20 PM ET
SEA -3.5
O/U 44.5
Ready
SF @ LA
Thu 8:35 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 48.5
Ready
ATL @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT -3.5
O/U 41.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
BAL @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -3.5
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
BUF @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -1.5
O/U 44.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
CHI @ CAR
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -3
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
CLE @ JAX
Sun 1:00 PM ET
JAX -8.5
O/U 40.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
NO @ DET
Sun 1:00 PM ET
DET -6.5
O/U 49.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
NYJ @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TEN -1.5
O/U 39.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
TB @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -3.5
O/U 50.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
ARI @ LAC
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LAC -9.5
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
GB @ MIN
Sun 4:25 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 46.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
MIA @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LV -3.5
O/U 40.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
WAS @ PHI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
PHI -5.5
O/U 44.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
DAL @ NYG
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DAL -2.5
O/U 48.5
Unlocks Fri 8:20 PM
DEN @ KC
Mon 8:15 PM ET
KC -2.5
O/U 43.5
Unlocks Sat 8:15 PM