Archived Week 1 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns
Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · Bank of America Stadium, Carolina Final
Chicago Bears
0-0 · 13-6 last season
Final59
At CHI -3 Total 47.5 CHI covered · Over
Carolina Panthers
0-0 · 8-10 last season
Final37
Line movement open Sep 6 CAR spread +2.5 +3 0.5 Total 47.5 47.5 no move
The angle, before kickoff Pass · 3/10

McMillan draws CHI's #26 WR defense allowing a league-soft 35.8 fpa: a genuine smash spot.

SidePASSprojected margin 3.0 sits exactly on CHI -3.
TotalPASSprojected 47.4 versus line 47.5, no edge.
Best bet
McMillan over 60.5 receiving yards against CHI's softest-in-league #26 WR defense (35.8 fpa).
Quick hits
  • CHI -3, total 47.5, implied CHI 25.2 and CAR 22.2.
  • Moderate scoring: projected total 47.4 sits right on the line.
  • Decisive edge: CAR's Young and McMillan smash CHI's #26-ranked pass and QB defense.
  • CHI favored and run-leaning (rush #3, 144 yds); CAR trails and throws.
  • Wind 17 mph and Brooks groin questionable can swing it.

Key matchups

  • McMillan vs CHI #26 WR: 35.8 fpa, softest spot on the board, smash.
  • Young vs CHI #26 QB: 19.8 fpa, elite matchup, smash.
  • Swift vs CAR #25 RB: 25.3 fpa, favorable rushing lane.
  • Williams vs CAR #7 QB: 14.5 fpa, toughest spot, fade upside.
  • Burden vs CAR #11 WR: 28.2 fpa listed bad but rank neutral.
  • Loveland vs CAR #17 TE: 13.5 fpa, average, streaming ceiling only.
CHI skill positions vs CAR defense
QB
#25/32
19.0 fpa
Elite
RB
#32/32
32.0 fpa
Elite
WR
#20/32
30.8 fpa
Good
TE
#16/32
13.1 fpa
Average
CAR skill positions vs CHI defense
QB
#31/32
23.4 fpa
Elite
RB
#19/32
23.9 fpa
Good
WR
#30/32
38.1 fpa
Elite
TE
#11/32
12.4 fpa
Bad

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

  • CHI runs a league-high 67 plays, 54% pass; CAR slower at 60 plays.
  • CHI leads and leans run; CAR (#27 offense) plays from behind and throws.
  • Points split evenly: 25.2 vs 22.2 implied, both TD rates modest.
Projected points (market implied)
CHI25.2
CAR22.2
Offense profile
CHIRank of 32CAR
27.6 #7 Pts / G 20.5 #25
246.0 #9 Pass yds / G 210.3 #21
151.4 #3 Rush yds / G 115.2 #17
66.7 #1 Plays / G 59.8 #21
53% Pass rate 54%
1.7 Pass TD / G 1.5
1.3 Rush TD / G 0.8
1.3 Sacks taken / G 2.1
0.6 INT thrown / G 0.7
Defense profile
CHIRank of 32CAR
24.8 #22 Pts allowed / G 24.8 #21
256.1 #28 Pass yds allowed 225.1 #16
131.7 #28 Rush yds allowed 127.9 #26
2.1 Sacks / G 1.8
1.2 INT / G 0.8
1.9 Pass TD allowed 1.3
0.9 Rush TD allowed 1.4

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-14, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-13 13:00 local Low impact
Conditions
Patchy rain nearby
Temp
85°F
feels 93°
Wind
14 mph E
gusts 15 mph
Rain
17%
0.00 in
Humidity
68%
  • Wind 14 mph: minor, mostly on long kicks
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
  • F, wind 17 mph E: field goals past 45 and deep shots get harder, moderate.
  • Rain chance 11%, no precip; passing volume fine, kicking and total slightly capped.

DFS

  • Stack Young $5200 with McMillan $6100 into CHI's #26 pass defense.
  • Value: Young 3.21x is the slate's cheapest QB with a smash matchup.
  • Fade Williams $6300 into CAR's #7 QB defense (14.5 fpa).
  • Contrarian: Coker $4600 also faces the #26 WR unit at low ownership.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

  • McMillan - receiving yards 60.5 - over - #26 WR defense, 35.8 fpa smash.
  • Young - passing yards 209.5 - over - #26 QB matchup, elite spot.
  • Swift - rushing yards 62.5 - over - CAR #25 RB defense, favorable.
  • Williams - passing yards 229.5 - under - CAR #7 QB defense, toughest spot.
All CHI and CAR props with AI grades

Injuries

CHI 8 listed
  • Out Miller Moss QB Unknown Severe
  • Out Tyson Bagent QB Back Severe
  • Out Dallis Flowers CB Unknown Minimal
  • Out Jamree Kromah DE Unknown Minimal
  • Out Jayden Loving DT Unknown Minimal
  • Out Jonathan Garvin DE Unknown Minimal
  • Out Jordan McFadden G Unknown Minimal
  • Out Kyler Gordon CB Calf Minimal
CAR 8 listed
  • Out Haynes King QB Coach'S Decision Severe
  • Out Ja'Tavion Sanders TE Coach'S Decision Severe
  • Out John Metchie III WR Coach'S Decision Severe
  • Out Albert Reese OT Unknown Minimal
  • Out Cam Jackson DT Unknown Minimal
  • Out Patrick Jones II OLB Unknown Minimal
  • Out Taylor Moton OT Unknown Minimal
  • Out Zakee Wheatley FS Unknown Minimal
Full NFL injury report

Watch list

  • Brooks (RB, groin) questionable: an out boosts Hubbard's rushing role.
  • Odunze (WR, calf) questionable: sitting funnels targets to Burden and Loveland.
  • Wind holding 17 mph: monitor for deep-ball and long-kick suppression.

Week 1 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.
NE @ SEA
Wed 8:20 PM ET
SEA -3.5
O/U 44.5
Final
SF @ LA
Thu 8:35 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 47.5
Final
ATL @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT -5.5
O/U 40.5
Final
BAL @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -3.5
O/U 47.5
Final
BUF @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -1.5
O/U 44.5
Final
CHI @ CAR
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -3
O/U 47.5
Final
CLE @ JAX
Sun 1:00 PM ET
JAX -8.5
O/U 40.5
Final
NO @ DET
Sun 1:00 PM ET
DET -6.5
O/U 49.5
Final
NYJ @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TEN -1.5
O/U 38.5
Final
TB @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -3.5
O/U 50.5
Final
ARI @ LAC
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LAC -9.5
O/U 47.5
Final
GB @ MIN
Sun 4:25 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 46.5
Final
MIA @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LV -3
O/U 39.5
Final
WAS @ PHI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
PHI -5.5
O/U 44.5
Final
DAL @ NYG
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DAL -3
O/U 47.5
Final
DEN @ KC
Mon 8:15 PM ET
KC -2.5
O/U 42.5
Kicked off
Updated Sep 12, 9:34 AM ET For entertainment and informational purposes only; not betting or gambling advice.