Archived Week 1 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET · NBC · Lumen Field, Seattle Primetime Final

New England Patriots

0-0 · 17-4 last season

Final10

At SEA -3.5 Total 44.5 NE covered · Under

Seattle Seahawks

0-0 · 18-2 last season

Final13

Line movement open Sep 6 SEA spread -3.5 -3.5 no move Total 44.5 44.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Play · 6/10

SEA -3.5 at home, top-ranked defense against Maye holds NE to a 20.5 implied total.

SideBET HOME -3.5SEA #1 defense, 24.0 implied, won last two vs NE.

TotalBET UNDER 44.5both defenses top-3 in points allowed, slow pace.

Best bet

Under 44.5 with two top-3 scoring defenses and sub-62 play paces on both sides.

Quick hits

SEA -3.5, total 44.5, implied NE 20.5 / SEA 24.0.
Balanced-to-modest scoring, both defenses elite: SEA #1 points allowed, NE #3.
SEA #1 defense vs NE #7 offense is the decisive edge.
SEA leads, balanced attack; NE forced to chase at 49% base pass rate.
Henderson ankle (Q) shifts NE backfield if he sits.

Key matchups

Hunter Henry vs SEA #21 vs TE: 14.2 fpa, softest NE spot, FAVORABLE.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs NE #13 vs WR: 28.9 fpa, 18.6 proj, top play, NEUTRAL.
A.J. Brown vs SEA #4 vs WR: 25.6 fpa, TOUGH, capped ceiling.
Rhamondre Stevenson vs SEA #3 vs RB: 18.3 fpa, TOUGH, 9.6 proj.
Jadarian Price vs NE #9 vs RB: 20.3 fpa, 11.2 proj, NEUTRAL lead back.
Drake Maye vs SEA #8 vs QB: 14.7 fpa, NEUTRAL, contained.

NE skill positions vs SEA defense

#4/32

14.4 fpa

Avoid

#6/32

18.4 fpa

Avoid

#2/32

24.8 fpa

Avoid

#19/32

13.9 fpa

Good

SEA skill positions vs NE defense

#6/32

15.0 fpa

Avoid

#5/32

18.4 fpa

Avoid

#19/32

30.3 fpa

Good

#9/32

11.6 fpa

Bad

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

Both slow: NE 62 plays (#17), SEA 61 (#20), 49% pass rates each.
SEA favored, leans on Price ground game; NE trails and passes more.
Points scarce: 44.5 total, both defenses top-3 in points allowed.

Projected points (market implied)

NE20.5

SEA24.0

Offense profile

NERank of 32SEA

26.4 #9 Pts / G 29.2 #3

246.6 #7 Pass yds / G 239.3 #11

129.1 #6 Rush yds / G 125.0 #10

62.0 #17 Plays / G 60.0 #20

49% Pass rate 49%

1.8 Pass TD / G 1.6

1.1 Rush TD / G 1.1

3.2 Sacks taken / G 1.7

0.7 INT thrown / G 0.8

Defense profile

NERank of 32SEA

17.5 #2 Pts allowed / G 16.6 #1

193.2 #3 Pass yds allowed 216.7 #13

101.2 #5 Rush yds allowed 92.5 #2

2.2 Sacks / G 2.9

0.7 INT / G 1.1

1.3 Pass TD allowed 1.2

0.5 Rush TD allowed 0.4

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-14, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-09 17:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

77°F

feels 73°

Wind

5 mph NNW

gusts 12 mph

Rain

10%

0.00 in

Humidity

35%

Overcast, 76F, wind 4 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Overcast, 77F, wind 5 mph, 10% rain: no weather factor.
Passing, kicking and totals unaffected.

DFS

Stack: Darnold + Smith-Njigba, SEA highest implied total at 24.0.
Value: Hunter Henry $3800 (2.33x) into SEA #21 vs TE, FAVORABLE.
Fade: Rhamondre Stevenson $5700 vs SEA #3 RB defense, TOUGH.
Contrarian: Rashid Shaheed $4400 (2.05x), 19.1 ceiling, low ownership.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Hunter Henry - receptions o3.5 (+148) - lean over - SEA #21 vs TE.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - receiving yards o82.5 (+175) - lean over - 18.6 proj, #13 matchup.
A.J. Brown - receiving yards o62.5 (-113) - lean under - SEA #4 WR defense.
Sam Darnold - passing yards o228.5 (+175) - lean over - 17.2 proj, NEUTRAL.

All NE and SEA props with AI grades

Injuries

NE 8 listed

Out Behren Morton QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Efton Chism III WR Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Myles Montgomery RB Unknown Severe
Out TreVeyon Henderson RB Unknown Severe
Out Brenden Schooler FS Unknown Minimal
Out Erick Hunter LB Unknown Minimal
Out Harold Landry III OLB Undisclosed Minimal
Out Karon Prunty CB Unknown Minimal

SEA 8 listed

Out Irvin Charles WR Undisclosed Severe
Out Jalen Milroe QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Nick Kallerup TE Unknown Severe
Out Tory Horton WR Hamstring Severe
Out Zach Charbonnet RB Knee Severe
Out Beau Stephens G Unknown Minimal
Out Mike Morris DE Unknown Minimal
Out Nick Emmanwori FS Ankle Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

SEA won 5 straight, including 29-13 over NE on 2026-02-08.
H2H: SEA won last two meetings by 16 and 3.
Line static: spread -3.5 and total 44.5 unmoved since Sep 6.

NE last 5

L 10-13 @ SEAL 13-29 vs SEAW 10-7 @ DENW 28-16 vs HOUW 16-3 vs LAC

SEA last 5

W 13-10 vs NEW 29-13 @ NEW 31-27 vs LAW 41-6 vs SFW 13-3 @ SF

Head-to-head

Sep 9, 2026 NE 10 at SEA 13
Feb 8, 2026 SEA 29 at NE 13
Sep 15, 2024 SEA 23 at NE 20

Watch list

TreVeyon Henderson (Q, ankle): his status reshapes NE backfield touches.
Tory Horton (Q, WR): active status affects SEA receiver snaps behind JSN.
Terrion Arnold (CB, Out): thin SEA secondary could aid Brown.

Week 1 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.