New England Patriots
20260-0 202517-3
@
Seattle Seahawks
20260-0 202517-2
Wed Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET Lumen Field, Seattle NBC Primetime Ready

SEA -3.5 at home, top-ranked defense against Maye holds NE to a 20.5 implied total.

SideBET HOME -3.5
SEA #1 defense, 24.0 implied, won last two vs NE.
TotalBET UNDER 44.5
both defenses top-3 in points allowed, slow pace.
Lean6/10
Confidence
The 90-second read
  • SEA -3.5, total 44.5, implied NE 20.5 / SEA 24.0.
  • Balanced-to-modest scoring, both defenses elite: SEA #1 points allowed, NE #3.
  • SEA #1 defense vs NE #7 offense is the decisive edge.
  • SEA leads, balanced attack; NE forced to chase at 49% base pass rate.
  • Henderson ankle (Q) shifts NE backfield if he sits.
Best bet Under 44.5 with two top-3 scoring defenses and sub-62 play paces on both sides.
SpreadSEA -3.5
Total44.5
NE implied20.5
SEA implied24.0
NE ML+150
SEA ML-178
Line movement open Sep 6 SEA spread -3.5 -3.5 no move Total 44.5 44.5 no move FanDuel

Key matchups

  • Hunter Henry vs SEA #21 vs TE: 14.2 fpa, softest NE spot, FAVORABLE.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs NE #13 vs WR: 28.9 fpa, 18.6 proj, top play, NEUTRAL.
  • A.J. Brown vs SEA #4 vs WR: 25.6 fpa, TOUGH, capped ceiling.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson vs SEA #3 vs RB: 18.3 fpa, TOUGH, 9.6 proj.
  • Jadarian Price vs NE #9 vs RB: 20.3 fpa, 11.2 proj, NEUTRAL lead back.
  • Drake Maye vs SEA #8 vs QB: 14.7 fpa, NEUTRAL, contained.
TeamPlayerPos ProjDK $ vs defenseFPAEdge
NE A.J. Brown WR 16.7 $7,100 SEA #4 of 32 25.6 Tough
NE Drake Maye QB 16.4 $6,000 SEA #8 of 32 14.7 Neutral
NE Rhamondre Stevenson RB 9.6 $5,700 SEA #3 of 32 18.3 Tough
NE Hunter Henry TE 8.9 $3,800 SEA #21 of 32 14.2 Favorable
SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 18.6 $7,600 NE #13 of 32 28.9 Neutral
SEA Sam Darnold QB 17.2 $5,400 NE #10 of 32 15.4 Neutral
SEA Jadarian Price RB 11.2 $5,600 NE #9 of 32 20.3 Neutral
SEA AJ Barner TE 7.4 $3,600 NE #18 of 32 13.7 Neutral
NE skill positions vs SEA defense
QB
#8/32
14.7 fpa
Avoid
RB
#3/32
18.3 fpa
Avoid
WR
#4/32
25.6 fpa
Avoid
TE
#21/32
14.2 fpa
Good
SEA skill positions vs NE defense
QB
#10/32
15.4 fpa
Bad
RB
#9/32
20.3 fpa
Bad
WR
#13/32
28.9 fpa
Bad
TE
#18/32
13.7 fpa
Average

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

  • Both slow: NE 62 plays (#17), SEA 61 (#20), 49% pass rates each.
  • SEA favored, leans on Price ground game; NE trails and passes more.
  • Points scarce: 44.5 total, both defenses top-3 in points allowed.
Projected points (market implied)
NE20.5
SEA24.0
Offense profile
NERank of 32SEA
27.2 #7 Pts / G 30.1 #2
250.0 #6 Pass yds / G 241.4 #9
130.1 #5 Rush yds / G 126.5 #9
61.8 #17 Plays / G 60.7 #20
49% Pass rate 49%
1.8 Pass TD / G 1.6
1.2 Rush TD / G 1.2
3.2 Sacks taken / G 1.7
0.6 INT thrown / G 0.8
Defense profile
NERank of 32SEA
17.8 #3 Pts allowed / G 16.9 #1
192.8 #3 Pass yds allowed 218.7 #13
101.4 #6 Rush yds allowed 91.6 #2
2.2 Sacks / G 2.9
0.7 INT / G 1.0
1.4 Pass TD allowed 1.2
0.5 Rush TD allowed 0.5

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-09, 20 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-09 17:00 local No weather factor
Conditions
Overcast
Temp
77°F
feels 73°
Wind
5 mph NNW
gusts 12 mph
Rain
10%
0.00 in
Humidity
35%
  • Overcast, 76F, wind 4 mph: no weather factor
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
  • Overcast, 77F, wind 5 mph, 10% rain: no weather factor.
  • Passing, kicking and totals unaffected.

DFS

  • Stack: Darnold + Smith-Njigba, SEA highest implied total at 24.0.
  • Value: Hunter Henry $3800 (2.33x) into SEA #21 vs TE, FAVORABLE.
  • Fade: Rhamondre Stevenson $5700 vs SEA #3 RB defense, TOUGH.
  • Contrarian: Rashid Shaheed $4400 (2.05x), 19.1 ceiling, low ownership.
NE projected players
PosPlayerProj Floor / ceilDK $Val FD $vs
WR A.J. Brown 16.7 7.4 / 31.4 $7,100 2.35x $8,300 #4
QB Drake Maye 16.4 11.0 / 27.8 $6,000 2.73x $7,900 #8
RB Rhamondre Stevenson 9.6 5.0 / 20.0 $5,700 1.68x $6,700 #3
RB TreVeyon Henderson 9.1 4.5 / 19.5 $5,200 1.74x $6,200 #3
WR Romeo Doubs 9.1 3.0 / 19.3 $4,600 1.97x $5,900 #4
TE Hunter Henry 8.9 3.1 / 20.0 $3,800 2.33x $5,600 #21
WR DeMario Douglas 4.3 0.0 / 13.6 $3,300 1.29x $4,800 #4
SEA projected players
PosPlayerProj Floor / ceilDK $Val FD $vs
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 18.6 10.0 / 36.5 $7,600 2.44x $9,100 #13
QB Sam Darnold 17.2 9.7 / 25.7 $5,400 3.19x $7,300 #10
RB Jadarian Price 11.2 4.7 / 20.2 $5,600 1.99x $6,900 #9
WR Rashid Shaheed 9.0 2.2 / 19.1 $4,400 2.05x $5,800 #13
WR Cooper Kupp 7.5 2.1 / 18.5 $4,100 1.82x $5,500 #13
TE AJ Barner 7.4 2.5 / 19.6 $3,600 2.06x $5,100 #18
RB George Holani 5.4 1.7 / 15.2 $4,600 1.17x $5,300 #9

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

  • Hunter Henry - receptions o3.5 (+148) - lean over - SEA #21 vs TE.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba - receiving yards o82.5 (+175) - lean over - 18.6 proj, #13 matchup.
  • A.J. Brown - receiving yards o62.5 (-113) - lean under - SEA #4 WR defense.
  • Sam Darnold - passing yards o228.5 (+175) - lean over - 17.2 proj, NEUTRAL.
PlayerMarketLine ProjOverBookOpp rank
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR SEA Receptions 6.5 6.1 +104 FanDuel #3
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR SEA Rec yds 82.5 89.6 +175 Bovada #3
Sam Darnold QB SEA Pass TD 1.5 1.5 +120 BetMGM #11
Sam Darnold QB SEA Pass yds 228.5 239.8 +175 Bovada #3
Sam Darnold QB SEA Rush yds 5.5 5.2 -102 FanDuel #6
A.J. Brown WR NE Receptions 5.5 5.6 +120 BetOnline #13
A.J. Brown WR NE Rec yds 62.5 71.5 -113 FanDuel #13
Drake Maye QB NE Pass TD 1.5 1.6 +150 BetRivers #5
Drake Maye QB NE Pass yds 232.5 227.5 +175 Bovada #13
Drake Maye QB NE Rush yds 25.5 26.4 -112 BetRivers #2
Jadarian Price RB SEA Rush yds 53.5 – +145 Bovada #6
Jadarian Price RB SEA Receptions 1.5 – +130 DraftKings #3
Jadarian Price RB SEA Rec yds 7.5 – -113 FanDuel #3
Rhamondre Stevenson RB NE Rush yds 57.5 33.1 +150 Bovada #2

Best available over price per line. Opp rank = the defense's rank in that stat allowed (32 allows the most).

All NE and SEA props with AI grades

Injuries

NE 8 listed
  • Out Myles Montgomery RB Unknown Severe
  • Quest. TreVeyon Henderson RB Ankle Moderate
  • Out Brenden Schooler FS Undisclosed Minimal
  • Out Harold Landry III OLB Undisclosed Minimal
  • IR Bryce Baringer P Undisclosed Minimal
  • IR Isaiah Iton DE Undisclosed Minimal
  • IR Khalil Jacobs ILB Undisclosed Minimal
  • IR Marcus Bryant OT Ankle Minimal
SEA 8 listed
  • Out Irvin Charles WR Undisclosed Severe
  • Out Zach Charbonnet RB Knee Severe
  • Quest. Emanuel Wilson RB Unknown Moderate
  • Out Robbie Ouzts FB Unknown Minimal
  • Out Terrion Arnold CB Unknown Minimal
  • Quest. Brandon Pili DT Lower-Leg Minimal
  • Quest. Julian Neal CB Leg Minimal
  • Quest. Tory Horton WR Undisclosed Minimal
Full NFL injury report

Watch list

  • TreVeyon Henderson (Q, ankle): his status reshapes NE backfield touches.
  • Tory Horton (Q, WR): active status affects SEA receiver snaps behind JSN.
  • Terrion Arnold (CB, Out): thin SEA secondary could aid Brown.

Week 1 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.
NE @ SEA
Wed 8:20 PM ET
SEA -3.5
O/U 44.5
Ready
SF @ LA
Thu 8:35 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 48.5
Ready
ATL @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT -3.5
O/U 41.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
BAL @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -3.5
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
BUF @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -1.5
O/U 44.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
CHI @ CAR
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -3
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
CLE @ JAX
Sun 1:00 PM ET
JAX -8.5
O/U 40.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
NO @ DET
Sun 1:00 PM ET
DET -6.5
O/U 49.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
NYJ @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TEN -1.5
O/U 39.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
TB @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -3.5
O/U 50.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
ARI @ LAC
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LAC -9.5
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
GB @ MIN
Sun 4:25 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 46.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
MIA @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LV -3.5
O/U 40.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
WAS @ PHI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
PHI -5.5
O/U 44.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
DAL @ NYG
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DAL -2.5
O/U 48.5
Unlocks Fri 8:20 PM
DEN @ KC
Mon 8:15 PM ET
KC -2.5
O/U 43.5
Unlocks Sat 8:15 PM
Updated Sep 9, 1:18 PM ET For entertainment and informational purposes only; not betting or gambling advice.