Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20260-0 20257-9
@
Cincinnati Bengals
20260-0 20255-11
TB @ CIN breakdown unlocks Fri Sep 11, 1:00 PM ET
The AI read lands 48 hours before kickoff. The market, key matchups, injuries and weather below are live now.
SpreadCIN -3.5
Total50.5
TB implied23.5
CIN implied27.0
TB ML+176
CIN ML-210
Line movement open Sep 6
CIN spread
-3.5 -3.5
no move
Total
50.5 50.5
no move
FanDuel
Key matchups
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB |
Baker Mayfield | QB | 18.2 | $5,900 | CIN #22 of 32 | 18.7 | Favorable |
| TB |
Emeka Egbuka | WR | 12.1 | $6,200 | CIN #2 of 32 | 24.1 | Tough |
| TB |
Bucky Irving | RB | 11.6 | $5,700 | CIN #29 of 32 | 27.9 | Smash |
| TB |
Cade Otton | TE | 8.3 | $3,700 | CIN #32 of 32 | 21.1 | Smash |
| CIN |
Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 20.6 | $7,800 | TB #15 of 32 | 30.8 | Neutral |
| CIN |
Joe Burrow | QB | 19.6 | $6,900 | TB #31 of 32 | 22.2 | Smash |
| CIN |
Chase Brown | RB | 16.5 | $7,100 | TB #17 of 32 | 22.3 | Neutral |
| CIN |
Mike Gesicki | TE | 6.8 | $3,100 | TB #30 of 32 | 17.1 | Smash |
TB skill positions vs CIN defenseQB
#22/32
18.7 fpa
RB
#29/32
27.9 fpa
WR
#2/32
24.1 fpa
TE
#32/32
21.1 fpa
CIN skill positions vs TB defenseQB
#31/32
22.2 fpa
RB
#17/32
22.3 fpa
WR
#15/32
30.8 fpa
TE
#30/32
17.1 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
Projected points (market implied)
TB23.5
CIN27.0
Offense profile
TBRank of 32CIN
22.3
#17
Pts / G
24.8
#11
224.8
#18
Pass yds / G
258.3
#5
115.4
#18
Rush yds / G
96.6
#28
63.2
#11
Plays / G
63.0
#12
54%
Pass rate
63%
1.4
Pass TD / G
2.2
0.8
Rush TD / G
0.6
2.3
Sacks taken / G
2.1
0.7
INT thrown / G
1.1
Defense profile
TBRank of 32CIN
24.4
#23
Pts allowed / G
29.8
#31
252.1
#27
Pass yds allowed
243.0
#22
100.9
#5
Rush yds allowed
153.2
#32
2.2
Sacks / G
2.1
0.8
INT / G
0.7
1.8
Pass TD allowed
2.0
0.9
Rush TD allowed
1.1
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-09, 20 games per team.
Weather
Forecast lands 2 days before kickoff (Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati)
DFS
TB projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Baker Mayfield | 18.2 | 10.9 / 27.7 | $5,900 | 3.08x | $7,500 | #22 |
| WR | Emeka Egbuka | 12.1 | 4.1 / 23.7 | $6,200 | 1.95x | $6,400 | #2 |
| RB | Bucky Irving | 11.6 | 6.6 / 23.8 | $5,700 | 2.03x | $7,900 | #29 |
| WR | Chris Godwin Jr. | 11.2 | 4.1 / 24.4 | $5,200 | 2.16x | $6,300 | #2 |
| RB | Kenny Gainwell | 9.8 | 4.2 / 20.4 | $5,200 | 1.89x | $5,500 | #29 |
| WR | Jalen McMillan | 9.5 | 2.5 / 20.4 | $4,400 | 2.16x | $5,400 | #2 |
| TE | Cade Otton | 8.3 | 2.7 / 19.6 | $3,700 | 2.23x | $5,000 | #32 |
CIN projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | Ja'Marr Chase | 20.6 | 10.7 / 37.4 | $7,800 | 2.64x | $8,900 | #15 |
| QB | Joe Burrow | 19.6 | 12.7 / 29.8 | $6,900 | 2.84x | $8,200 | #31 |
| RB | Chase Brown | 16.5 | 9.7 / 28.4 | $7,100 | 2.32x | $7,500 | #17 |
| WR | Tee Higgins | 14.7 | 5.2 / 27.4 | $6,300 | 2.34x | $7,200 | #15 |
| TE | Mike Gesicki | 6.8 | 1.6 / 17.0 | $3,100 | 2.20x | $4,900 | #30 |
| RB | Samaje Perine | 6.1 | 1.8 / 15.3 | $4,600 | 1.33x | $4,800 | #17 |
| WR | Andrei Iosivas | 4.4 | 0.0 / 10.9 | $3,300 | 1.33x | $4,900 | #15 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Over | Book | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase WR CIN | Receptions | 7.5 | 8.3 | +116 | FanDuel | #27 |
| Ja'Marr Chase WR CIN | Rec yds | 86.5 | 94.3 | -111 | DraftKings | #27 |
| Joe Burrow QB CIN | Pass TD | 1.5 | 2.3 | +165 | BetOnline | #22 |
| Joe Burrow QB CIN | Pass yds | 267.5 | 247.3 | -111 | DraftKings | #27 |
| Joe Burrow QB CIN | Rush yds | 6.5 | 5.6 | -113 | BetRivers | #5 |
| Baker Mayfield QB TB | Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.8 | -107 | DraftKings | #29 |
| Baker Mayfield QB TB | Pass yds | 230.5 | 251.3 | -113 | DraftKings | #22 |
| Baker Mayfield QB TB | Rush yds | 14.5 | 26.0 | -111 | BetMGM | #32 |
| Chase Brown RB CIN | Rush yds | 59.5 | 62.7 | -111 | DraftKings | #5 |
| Chase Brown RB CIN | Receptions | 3.5 | 4.2 | -108 | FanDuel | #27 |
| Chase Brown RB CIN | Rec yds | 23.5 | 26.9 | -109 | DraftKings | #27 |
| Tee Higgins WR CIN | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.2 | -137 | BetRivers | #27 |
| Tee Higgins WR CIN | Rec yds | 64.5 | 59.9 | -110 | DraftKings | #27 |
| Emeka Egbuka WR TB | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.0 | +130 | Fanatics | #22 |
Best available over price per line. Opp rank = the defense's rank in that stat allowed (32 allows the most).
All TB and CIN props with AI gradesInjuries
TB 8 listed- Out David Sills WR Undisclosed Severe
- Quest. Sean Tucker RB Undisclosed Moderate
- Out Mohamed Kamara OLB Knee Minimal
- Out Xavier Williams DT Hip Minimal
- Quest. Emeka Egbuka WR Toe Minimal
- Quest. Jalen McMillan WR Knee Minimal
- Quest. Rueben Bain Jr. OLB Unknown Minimal
- IR Deshawn McKnight DT Hamstring Minimal
CIN 7 listed- Quest. Dax Hill CB Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Ja'Marr Chase WR Knee Minimal
- Quest. Myles Murphy DE Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Shemar Stewart DE Knee Minimal
- Quest. Tee Higgins WR Heel Minimal
- IR Brian Parker II C Undisclosed Minimal
- IR Ja'Sir Taylor CB Undisclosed Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
TB last 5W 16-14 vs CARL 17-20 @ MIAL 20-23 @ CARL 28-29 vs ATLL 20-24 vs NO
CIN last 5L 18-20 vs CLEW 37-14 vs ARIW 45-21 @ MIAL 0-24 vs BALL 34-39 @ BUF
Head-to-head
- Dec 18, 2022 CIN 34 at TB 23
Week 1 slate
Swipe for all 16 games this week.
NE @ SEA
Wed 8:20 PM ET
SEA -3.5
O/U 44.5
Ready
SF @ LA
Thu 8:35 PM ET
LA -3.5
O/U 48.5
Ready
ATL @ PIT
Sun 1:00 PM ET
PIT -3.5
O/U 41.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
BAL @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -3.5
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
BUF @ HOU
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -1.5
O/U 44.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
CHI @ CAR
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -3
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
CLE @ JAX
Sun 1:00 PM ET
JAX -8.5
O/U 40.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
NO @ DET
Sun 1:00 PM ET
DET -6.5
O/U 49.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
NYJ @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TEN -1.5
O/U 39.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
TB @ CIN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CIN -3.5
O/U 50.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
ARI @ LAC
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LAC -9.5
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
GB @ MIN
Sun 4:25 PM ET
MIN -1.5
O/U 46.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
MIA @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
LV -3.5
O/U 40.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
WAS @ PHI
Sun 4:25 PM ET
PHI -5.5
O/U 44.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
DAL @ NYG
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DAL -2.5
O/U 48.5
Unlocks Fri 8:20 PM
DEN @ KC
Mon 8:15 PM ET
KC -2.5
O/U 43.5
Unlocks Sat 8:15 PM