Archived Week 1 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-0 · 7-10 last season

Final27

At CIN -3.5 Total 50.5 CIN covered · Over

Cincinnati Bengals

0-0 · 6-11 last season

Final33

Line movement open Sep 6 CIN spread -3.5 -3.5 no move Total 50.5 50.5 no move

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 5/10

CIN -3.5 with a 50.5 total: Burrow smashes TB's #31 QB defense in a bottom-tier defensive clash.

SidePASSprojected margin 3.5 equals the spread, no edge.

TotalBET OVER 50.5CIN #31 and TB #23 scoring defenses with stacked smash spots.

Best bet

Joe Burrow over 270.5 passing yards against TB's #31 QB defense allowing 22.2 fpa.

Quick hits

CIN -3.5, total 50.5, implied TB 23.5 / CIN 27.0.
High scoring: CIN allows 29.8 pts (#31), TB allows 24.4 (#23), multiple smash spots both ways.
Decisive edge: Burrow (proj 20.8) vs TB #31 QB defense, a SMASH.
CIN leads and passes at 63%; TB counters through cheap RB and TE softness.
McMillan doubtful thins TB WR corps; weather is a non-factor.

Key matchups

Bucky Irving vs CIN #29 RB (27.9 fpa): SMASH, proj 12.7 into a soft front.
Cade Otton vs CIN #32 TE (21.1 fpa): SMASH, softest TE spot on the board.
Joe Burrow vs TB #31 QB (22.2 fpa): SMASH, proj 20.8 in a plus matchup.
Mike Gesicki vs TB #30 TE (17.1 fpa): SMASH, punt-priced at $3100.
Emeka Egbuka vs CIN #2 WR (24.1 fpa): TOUGH, stingiest WR draw, proj 13.3.
Ja'Marr Chase vs TB #16 WR (30.8 fpa): NEUTRAL, but proj 23.4 carries it.

TB skill positions vs CIN defense

#18/32

17.9 fpa

Average

#30/32

27.1 fpa

Elite

#1/32

24.4 fpa

Avoid

#31/32

18.0 fpa

Elite

CIN skill positions vs TB defense

#28/32

20.8 fpa

Elite

#17/32

23.2 fpa

Average

#5/32

28.5 fpa

Avoid

#32/32

18.7 fpa

Elite

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

Both run 63 plays; CIN passes 63%, TB just 54%, pace moderate.
CIN favored to lead, forcing Baker to lean pass-game and Irving in space.
Points flow from bottom-third defenses: CIN 2.2 pass TD offense meets TB #23 scoring D.

Projected points (market implied)

TB23.5

CIN27.0

Offense profile

TBRank of 32CIN

22.6 #17 Pts / G 25.3 #10

224.2 #18 Pass yds / G 258.1 #5

113.8 #19 Rush yds / G 97.1 #28

62.6 #16 Plays / G 63.0 #11

54% Pass rate 63%

1.4 Pass TD / G 2.1

0.9 Rush TD / G 0.6

2.4 Sacks taken / G 2.0

0.6 INT thrown / G 1.1

Defense profile

TBRank of 32CIN

24.9 #23 Pts allowed / G 29.6 #31

252.2 #27 Pass yds allowed 241.4 #21

101.2 #6 Rush yds allowed 149.4 #32

2.2 Sacks / G 2.2

0.8 INT / G 0.6

1.8 Pass TD allowed 1.9

0.9 Rush TD allowed 1.1

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2025-09-14, 21 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-09-13 13:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

82°F

feels 83°

Wind

5 mph WSW

gusts 7 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

56%

Sunny, 81F, wind 4 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Overcast, 83F, wind 5 mph, rain 13%: no weather factor.
Passing, kicking and the total are unaffected.

DFS

Stack: Burrow + Chase ($7800) with Bucky Irving bring-back into #29 RB.
Value: Cade Otton $3700 (1.97x) vs #32 TE, smash-spot punt.
Fade: Emeka Egbuka $6200 vs CIN #2 WR, priciest tough draw.
Contrarian: Mike Gesicki $3100 vs TB #30 TE, cheap leverage TD dart.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Joe Burrow - passing yards 270.5 - lean over - proj matches into #31 QB defense.
Bucky Irving - rushing yards 59.5 - lean over - CIN #29 RB, 27.9 fpa allowed.
Cade Otton - receptions 3.5 - lean over - TB TE facing #32 TE defense.
Ja'Marr Chase - receiving yards 84.5 - lean over - proj 23.4, ceiling 37.7.

All TB and CIN props with AI grades

Injuries

TB 8 listed

Out David Sills WR Undisclosed Severe
Out Jalen McMillan WR Knee Severe
Out Sean Tucker RB Hamstring Severe
Out Ayden Garnes CB Unknown Minimal
Out Billy Schrauth G Unknown Minimal
Out DeMonte Capehart DT Unknown Minimal
Out Elijah Simmons DT Unknown Minimal
Out Justin Skule OT Oblique Minimal

CIN 8 listed

Out Jack Endries TE Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Ke'Shawn Williams WR Unknown Severe
Out Connor Lew C Unknown Minimal
Out Josh Newton CB Unknown Minimal
Out Landon Robinson DT Unknown Minimal
Out Myles Hinton OT Unknown Minimal
Out Shemar Stewart DE Knee Minimal
IR Brian Parker II C Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

CIN last 5 volatile: 45, 37, 0 and 18-point outputs; TB 1-4.
H2H: CIN won 34-23 in the last meeting (2022).
Line static: spread and total unmoved from CIN -3.5 and 50.5.

TB last 5

L 27-33 @ CINW 16-14 vs CARL 17-20 @ MIAL 20-23 @ CARL 28-29 vs ATL

CIN last 5

W 33-27 vs TBL 18-20 vs CLEW 37-14 vs ARIW 45-21 @ MIAL 0-24 vs BAL

Head-to-head

Sep 13, 2026 TB 27 at CIN 33
Dec 18, 2022 CIN 34 at TB 23

Watch list

Jalen McMillan (doubtful, knee) - his sit boosts Egbuka/Godwin target share.
D.J. Turner (questionable, CB) - his status shifts CIN's coverage on Bucky and Otton.
Line at 50.5 - any move toward 51-plus confirms the over read.

Week 1 slate

Swipe for all 16 games this week.

NE @ SEA